The Homer Bailey Extension Is Good For The Short Term In Cincy: Not Sure About The Long – Term Though

Hunter Stokes (Chief Writer): 

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Homer Bailey may be the 3rd Starting Pitcher on the depth chart, but he happened to be the 1st guy up on Free Agency out of Mat Latos (2016 FA) and Johnny Cueto (2016 FA).

For this reason alone, I like the team extending the 27 Year Old to a 6 YR deal worth a minimum of $105 MIL, and with a Mutual Option for $25 MIL for the 2020 campaign – that could make it a 7 YRs/$125 MIL pact.

The deal starts off pretty good for dollar sense in the first two years, with Bailey making $8 MIL in 2014, and $9 MIL in 2015.

From there if I can borrow a line from Anchorman “That escalated quickly”, the next few years go like this, $18 MIL, $19 MIL, $21 MIL and $23 MIL for the years starting in 2016 – and finishing in 2019.

Homer Bailey took a long time to fulfill expectations in the Reds Starting Lineup.  At age 27, he has now thrown 2 No hitters in under a calendar year.  Bailey has a Career Record of 49 - 45, with a 4.38, but has hovered around a 3.60 ERA over the last 2 years.  In a team filled with history - including the only man ever to throw back to back no hitters (Johnny Vandermeer) - he has put his name up on that mantle.  Bailey has never been an ALL - Star, and has never finished in the top 20 for NL Cy Young Voting, but he was able to receive the 46rh best ever contract in MLB history

Homer Bailey took a long time to fulfill expectations in the Reds Starting Lineup. At age 27, he has now thrown 2 No hitters in under a calendar year. Bailey has a Career Record of 49 – 45, with a 4.38, but has hovered around a 3.60 ERA over the last 2 years. In a team filled with history – including the only man ever to throw back to back no – hitters (Johnny Vandermeer) – he had 2 consecutive No – hitters in the MLB. Bailey has never been an ALL – Star, and has never finished in the top 20 for NL Cy Young Voting, but he was able to receive the 46th best ever contract in MLB history

It is crazy to think that Bailey has now been elevated to the 46th richest contract in MLB History for the $ total.

There are a couple of things to like.  The 7 year RHP has seen improvement in each of the last 6 years, both in ERA and WHIP – while his IP have now topped out at over 200+ IP the last few seasons.

Bailey is making good to the organization that drafted him 7th overall in the 2004 MLB Amateur Draft.

it was a rocky beginning for him at 1st, starting off his career 4 – 8, with near a 7.00 ERA after his 1st 17 Game Starts in 2007 and 2008, but he was just 21 and 22 years old.

By 2009, he was a regular member of the Starting Rotation – and has made the grade to a solid #2 Starter in the MLB.

Homer Bailey authored No – Hitters in back to back years in 2012 and 2013.

The man originally from La Granger Texas, has fantastic command of the Strike zone, and featured nearly a 4 to 1 SO/BB per 9 IP last year (199/54).

Bailey also enjoyed his career best WHIP of 1.124 in 2013, whereas his Career mark is at 1.319.

Remarkably, he was even better at home (3.35 ERA) compared to his road clip (3.61 ERA) despite playing half of his games at Great American Ball Park last year.

That last stat was in heavy contrast to his numbers lifetime at GABP – where he has held down a mark of 4.74 ERA, while he has fared much better away from home cooking, donning a 3.73 ERA on the road.

In the long-term, Cincinnati may see either Latos or Cueto leave the nest, with doling out the money to Bailey 1st, and make sure you read a post we are going to do later today on the 2014 Reds Payroll.

Suffice it to say, Cincinnati can’t pay everyone long-term based on their earnings infrastructure, and have a great deal of dough committed to guys like Joey Votto and Brandon Phillips already.

This contract is for the competitive balance of the club in 2014, and more namely for 2015.  Guaranteed if Bailey made it to Free Agency, he would received a loftier payday then he just nailed down.

Lets just hope the other guys don’t ramp up jealous feelings over the cash committed to the fine gentlemen.

Being tied for the 46th biggest contract in history with Ryan Braun and Kevin Brown is heavy company for a player that has not even been an ALL-Star yet, has not finished in top 20 Cy Young Voting – and has only ever led one category every for any given year (2012 NL Leader in Game Starts with 33).

Heavy marks for his agent on this one.

This is a case where the Reds had to play ball on this.  With Latos and Cueto coming up for raises in 2016, the market might pole vault out of their ability to sign those last 2 guys mentioned anyway.

Cincinnati, your window for competing for a World Series is best served in the next campaigns, make it count.

The highest contracts in MLB history (Red means signed this offseason)

*1. Alex Rodriguez, $275,000,000 (2008-17)

*** With A-Rod’s suspension in 2014, he will forfeit $22.13 MIL bucks, so it will now end up 10 YRs/$252.87 MIL for the duration of his deal.

2. Alex Rodriguez, $252,000,000 (2001-10)

*3. Albert Pujols, $250,000,000 (2012-21)

*4. Robinson Cano, $240,000,000 (2014 – 2023)


*5. Joey Votto, $225,000,000 (2014-23)

*6.  Clayton Kershaw $215,000,000 (2014 – 2020)


*7. Prince Fielder
, $214,000,000 (2012-20)


8. Derek Jeter
, $189,000,000 (2001-10)

9. Joe Mauer, $184,000,000 (2011-18)
*T10. Mark Teixeira, $180,000,000 (2009-16)
*T10. Justin Verlander, $180,000,000 (2013-19)
*12. Felix Hernandez, $175,000,000 (2013-19)
*13. Buster Posey, $167,000,000 (2013-21)
*14. CC Sabathia, $161,000,000 (2009-15)
T-15. Manny Ramirez, $160,000,000 (2001-08)
*T-15. Matt Kemp, $160,000,000 (2012-19)
*17. Troy Tulowitzki, $157,750,000 (2011-20)

*18.  Masahiro Tanaka, $155,000,000 (2014 – 18)
*19. Adrian Gonzalez, $154,000,000 (2012-18)

*20. Jacoby Ellsbury , $153,000,000 (2014-2020)
21. Miguel Cabrera, $152,300,000 (2008-15)

*22. Zack Greinke, $147,000,000 (2013-18)
*23. Cole Hamels, $144,000,000 (2013-18) 
*24. Carl Crawford, $142,000,000 (2011-17)
25. Todd Helton, $141,500,000 (2003-11)
*26. David Wright, $138,000,000 (2013-20)
27. Johan Santana, $137,500,000 (2008-13)
*28. Alfonso Soriano, $136,000,000 (2007-14)

*29.  Freddie Freeman, $135,000,000 (2014-21)

*30Shin-Soo Choo, $130,000,000 (2014-20)
*31. Matt Cain, $127,500,000 (2012-17)


T*32. Vernon Wells
, $126,000,000 (2008-14)

T-32 Barry Zito, $126,000,000 (2007-13)
*T-32 Jayson Werth, $126,000,000 (2011-17)
*T-35. Ryan Howard, $125,000,000 (2012-16)
*T-35: Josh Hamilton, $125,000,000 (2013-17)
*37. CC Sabathia, $122,000,000 (2012-16)
38. Mike Hampton, $121,000,000 (2001-08)
T-39. Jason Giambi, $120,000,000 (2002-08)
*T-39. Matt Holliday, $120,000,000(2010-16)

*T-41:  Cliff Lee, $120,000,000(2011-15)
*T-41: Elvis Andrus, $120,000,000(2015-22)
43. Carlos Beltran, $119,000,000 (2005-11)
44.Ken Griffey Jr., $116,500,000 (2000-08)
*45. Jose Reyes, $106,000,000 (2012-17) 

T-46Homer Bailey, $105,000,000 (2014 – 2019)
T-46. Kevin Brown, $105,000,000 (1999-2005)
*T-46: Ryan Braun, $105,000,000 (2016-20)
*T-49. Ryan Zimmerman,* $100,000,000 (2014-19)
*T-49. Evan Longoria, $100,000,000 (2017-22)
T-40. Carlos Lee, $100,000,000 (2007-12)
T-49. Albert Pujols, $100,000,000 (2004-10)

*Denotes Active Contract

Just Outside the Bar

*53Adam Wainwright, $97,500,000 (2014-18)

54. Carlos Zambrano, $91,500,000 (2008-12)
55. Mike Piazza, $91,000,000 (1999-2005)

Homer Bailey has stuff to be a #2 starting pitcher on a good baseball club.  Despite having two other starters ahead of him in the Depth Chart, this extension boiled down to timing.  His name would have been first as a Free Agent before Cueto and Latos.  The team will pay him $88 MIL from 2016 - 2019 - after a team friendly start of $17 MIL for the 1st 2 years of the deal.

Homer Bailey has stuff to be a #2 starting pitcher on a good baseball club. Despite having two other starters ahead of him in the Depth Chart, this extension boiled down to timing. His name would have been first as a Free Agent before Cueto and Latos. The team will pay him $88 MIL from 2016 – 2019 – after a team friendly start of $17 MIL for the 1st 2 years of the deal.  Their is a Mutual Option for $25 MIL for the 2020 season.  That is a lot of cash for a team like Cincinnati to pay.  The franchise will see the years of Bailey’s deal see him from Age 27 – and end in his mid 30’s. If the club can nail down some playoff success in the next few years, this deal will completely be worth it.

*** The views and opinions expressed in this report are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of mlbreports.com ***

For all of the Rosters, Depth Charts, State of the Unions and Salaries Posts that we do, please visit our dedicated page link here.

A big thank-you goes out to Our ‘Chief WriterHunter Stokes for preparing today’s featured article.  Hunter is a Baseball Writer for MLB reports.

Hunter grew up in Lynchburg, Virginia and played baseball with Sheldon Bream (Sid Bream‘s son) at Liberty University in the NCAA.

His favorite player is Brian Wilson (how could you guess?), and he hates when people can’t think outside the box!

His favorite expression – is ‘ this At Bat is about ten seconds away from a Toe – Tag!

You can reach Hunter on Twitter  

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Posted on February 20, 2014, in MLB Payroll and Contracts, MLB Player Profiles, The Rest: Everything Baseball and tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , . Bookmark the permalink. Leave a comment.

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