The Philadelphia Phillies Franchise Part 4 of 4: Team Payroll 2013 And Contracts Forward (Mar.1)

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Friday, Mar.01/2013

Since Roy Halladay missed almost 2 months of baseball in 2012, his 2014 (20 Million Dollar contract will only become exercised if he pitches 225 Innings in 2013) – Otherwise he becomes a Free Agent.

Chuck Booth (Lead Baseball Analyst Website Owner):  

The Phillies are top-heavy for their payroll in 2013.  I talked a lot about this in Part 1 of this series (The Franchise).  What they really need is for Domonic Brown, John Mayberry and  Ben Revere to improve in their role with the club and get as much production as they can out of their superstars.  2013 looks a lot  better than the years after.  Roy Halladay must return to form in 2013.  

I am predicting  the team will win at least 90 games in this year with the Starting Pitching having a bounce back season.  The fans should all come in droves to the park while this club is competitive.  The Phillies will age really fast after 2013, so there will undoubtedly be some rougher times ahead, as Jimmy Rollins, Chase Utley and Ryan Howard all fade into the back half of their careers.

The New York Yankees are facing a similar dilemma.  You might even see a Yanks/Phillies World Series rematch in 2013.  I am sure the Dodgers, Angels, Tigers and Nationals will try to have their say about that as well.  

The smaller market teams might fight for another ring as well.  You are starting to see some distances set forth from the high-priced salaried teams to the lower payroll clubs with both Los Angeles teams and Detroit nearing or going over the Luxury Tax Threshold of 178 Million Dollars in Player Salaries.  

Again, I am thinking that MLB Baseball might have to realign soon-to make the divisions stack up for payroll and geography reasons.  I wrote an article about this some time ago here.  The Phillies have led the MLB in attendance for the last 3 years, so they will be able to keep the payroll at a high mark as long as the baseball revenue is able to match it.  It is the long-term contracts that won’t garner them much value at the end of these deals, that will ultimately set the Franchise back awhile.

Ryan Howard highlights are below.  He must return to his 40 HR self next year otherwise the Phillies will have a tough time competing.

For Part 1 of the Phillies Article Series: The Franchise click here:

For Part 2 of the Phillies Article Series: The Hitters click here:

For Part 3 of the Phillies Article Series: The Pitcher click here

For the Montreal Expos/Washington Nationals Franchise 5 Part Series: click here

The Phillies have finished .500+ or better for every year since 2002.  However 2012 saw their streak of 5 straight NL East Division Titles come to an end.  Can they come back to take the Division in 2013? Of they don't the salaries just go up - along with the teams collective age

The Phillies have finished .500+ or better for every year since 2002. However 2012 saw their streak of 5 straight NL East Division Titles come to an end. Can they come back to take the Division in 2013? Of they don’t the salaries just go up – along with the teams collective age.

Philadelphia Phillies Payroll (2013) in Millions:

Guaranteed Contracts:

Maroon Color designates new since the end of the 2012 season

1.  Cliff Lee  SP  (25.0)  Signed until 2015 and has a Vesting Option for $27.5 MIL in 2016, with 400 IP in 2014 – 2015, or 200 IP in just 2015.  Lee’s salary will only trail Johan Santana‘s  $25.5 MIL salary for 2013 amongst pitchers.    Lee will make $25 MIL in each of the 2014 and 2015 seasons before the 2016 Vesting Option.  Oh yeah.. If Lee qualifies for that – the Phils Buyout jumps to $12.5 MIL. This means a guaranteed $87.5 MIL from 2013 – 2015 and would be $102.5 MIL for the years of 2013 – 2016.  Lee must pitch to expectations or this deal will cripple Philadelphia.

2.  Ryan Howard  1B (20.0)  Signed until 2016 – with a 2017 Club option of 23 Million.  Howard will make $25 MIL for each year between 2014 – 2016.  Howard needs to hit 30+ HRs and add 100+ RBI for every year he collects these dollar figures.  He did average 44 HRs and 133 RBI between 2006 and 2011.  This contract would be justified by numbers approaching this.

3.  Roy Halladay SP   (20.0)  Signed until 13 – but has 2014 (20 Million) kick in with 225 IP in 2013.  Halladay is the Active Leader for Win Percentage for Pitchers (199-100, .666.)  Halladay is 51 – 24 (.680) – with a 2.91 ERA in his 3 years with the Phils since coming over from Toronto.  He pitched 233.2 IP in 2011.  His 2012 campaign of 11 – 8, with a 4.49 ERA in 156.1 IP would be catastrophic if he duplicates those numbers in 2013.  Halladay is worth the Vesting Option (and 2013 salary) if he can win 15-18 games , throw about 225 IP  – and carry a high 2 to low 3.00 ERA for the club.

4.  Cole Hamels  SP (19.5)  Signed until 2018 with a club/vesting option for 2019. His salary increases to $22.5 MIL for every year from 2014 – 2018.  Hamels is 31-15 in the last few years – and has finished in the top 8 for NL Cy Young Voting the last 2 years ( 5 and 8 respectively.)

5.  Chase Utley 2B (15.3)  Free Agent in 2014.  Utley will always battle physical ailments now and will be hard pressed to play more than about 130 games this year.  The Second Baseman has missed 185 games over the last 3 years.  The Phillies only have him on the books for this campaign.  Utley needs to have a  big year to earn a similar contract for next season.  If he plays too well, he might have to play for another franchise in 2014.

6.  Jonathan Papelbon  RP  (13.0)   Signed until 2015 at  $13 MIL per season.  Papelbon also has a Vesting option for 2016 ( $13 MIL) that is applied if he can finish 55 Games in 2015 or 100 between 2014 – 2015.  This option in withdrawn if he is on the Disabled List at the end of 2015 year.  This is a lot of bread for a Closer, however he has 257 Saves in the last 7 years, with a Career ERA of 2.34.  Only his 2010 season was forgettable, with a 3.94 ERA for the Red Sox.  Every other year he has been under a 3.00 ERA.  In a high – pressured city like Philadelphia, you better have a great stopper like this guy to bolt down contests!

7.  Jimmy Rollins  SS  (11.0)  Signed through 2015 Season.  The 2007 NL MVP makes $11 MIL in both the 2013 and 2014 years.  He has a Vesting Option for 2015 if he has 600 Plate Appearances in 2014 or 1100 between 2013 – 2014.  This option in withdrawn if he is on the Disabled List at the end of 2014.

8. Mike Adams RP (5.0) Signed through 2014 ($7.0 MIL in ’14) and a Team Option for 2015.  That years option guaranteed at $6 MIL with 60 IP in 2014 – or at $6.5 MIL with 120 IP in 2013-14, including 60 IP in 2014.

Michael Young was brought in for some veteran leadership this year.  Will a move and a definite defensive position enable him to improve on a poor 2012 campaign?

Michael Young was brought in for some veteran leadership this year. Will a move and a definite defensive position enable him to improve on a poor 2012 campaign?

9. Michael Young 3B/2B/1B (6.0)  Signed through the 2013 Season and a Free Agent in 2014.  Young has 10 out of 16 Million Dollar Contract being picked up by the Texas Rangers.  He has his worst year since 2002 in 2012.  Young hit for a 3 Slash Line of .277/.312/.682 in 2012 – where his Career numbers are .301/.347/.790.  If Young can fall somewhere in between last year and his lifetime line – then the Phillies will be content.

10.   Kyle Kendrick   SP  (4.5)  Arbitration Eligible in 2014 and a Free Agent in 2015.  Kendrick is a quality back of rotation guy – with a 54 – 42 Career Record (.563), with a 4.30 ERA.  If he can match this percentage, he could reel in 12-14 Wins during this year for the club.  He is great insurance for 2014 should Halladay not make his Vesting Option and leave the franchise.

11.  John Lannan SP (2.5)  Signed through 2013 and a Free Agent in 2014.  Lannan was a nice addition for the salary.  He was 10-13 as a Starter in 2011 – with a 3.70 ERA in 33 Games Started and 184.2 IP.  He was caught up in a numbers game in Washington.  He is familiar with the NL East – which is also a definite bonus.

12.  Laynce Nix  OF/PH  (1.4)  Unrestricted Free Agent in 2014.  Nix is a serviceable extra OF and PH with a 3 Slash Line of .245/.290/.729 for his Career.  He has 67 HRs and 242 RBI in his 1787 Lifetime AB.  He will be there for the team in case Delmon Young and Domonic Brown don’t pan out. He can also be counted on for some Pinch – Hitting.

13.  Chad Durbin RP (1.1)  Durbin signed a 1 YR/$1.1 MIL contract and will become a Free Agent again after this year.  Durbin had his best days in the Majors last year with the Braves – appearing in 76 Games and finishing 19 of them.  In his 1st stint with Philly (2008 – 2010)  – he appeared in 194 Games with a 3.62 ERA.  That is a nice bargain on the guy with a limited 1 year risk.

14.  Delmon Young OF (750 K) Young has 2.5 Million in incentives that he can reach.  He has made it clear that he wants to play RF once he breaks in with the team.  This means that Brown, Mayberry Jr. and Darin Ruf might just have to compete for the LF spot, with Revere taking the CF position.  Although Young will have to get in game shape and prove he can play defensively.

Delmon Young has a 1 YR deal worth 750 K - with a potential $2.5 MIL in incentives. Young hit 18 HRs and drove in 74 RBI for the Tigers last year - but only walked 20 times all year and carried an OBP of .296.  He was worth the low risk though

Young has a 1 YR deal worth 750 K – with a potential $2.5 MIL in incentives. Young hit 18 HRs and drove in 74 RBI for the Tigers in 2012 – but only walked 20 times all year and carried an OBP of .296. He was worth the low risk – and also produced in the ’12 Post Season – something the Phils would love to be back in for 2013.

The total for these 8 players is 145.05 Million Dollars (could be 147.55 with D.Young incentives).  So you have all 5 Starting Pitchers and all of your starting infielders on this list, plus your closer and utility OF. That is a lot of money. 

2013 Team Club Options in Millions:

15.    Carlos Ruiz  C (5.0)  The club picked up the option on ‘Chooch’.  He will miss the 1st 25 games with amphetamine use last year.

You have to save money somewhere.  With the emergence of Kevin Frandsen at 3rd base, plus Freddy Galvis coming back, you don’t have to sign high-priced veteran backups.  This brings your overall salary up to 150.05 Million Dollars.

Arbitration Available Players 2013:

16.Antonio Bastardo  RP  (1 YR/1.4 Million – Arbitration Avoided)  Bastardo is Arbitration Eligible until 2015 – and will be a Free Agent in 2016.

17. Kevin Frandsen 3B (850 K in 2013 – Arbitration Avoided) is Arbitration Eligible in 2014 – 2015, before becoming a Free Agent in 2016.  Frandsen has a 3 Slash Line of .338/.383/.834 in 195 AB in 2012.  He is great insurance at 3B (in case Michael Young moves over to 2nd or 1st Base in case of injury to Utley and Howard).  Frandsen is Arbitration Eligible until 2015 and will be a Free Agent in 2016.

Total Salaries after these payers is 152.3 Million Dollars.

Buyouts:

18. Placido Polanco 2B/3B – $1 MIL

19. Ty Wigginton 1B/3B – 500 K

20. Jose Contreras SP/RP – 500 K

2 MIL in Buyouts = 154.3 Million overall

Pre-Arbitration Eligible in 2013/Minimum Contracts:

21. Steve Lerud C TBD

22. Freddy Galvis  SS/2B  Arbitration Eligible in 2015 and a Free Agent in 2018.

23.  Jake Diekman  RP  Arbitration Eligible in 2016 and a Free Agent in 2019.

24.  Joe Savery RP  Arbitration Eligible in 2015 and a Free Agent in 2018.

25.  Michael Schwimer RP Arbitration Eligible in 2015 and a Free Agent in 2018.

26.  Raul Valdes RP  Arbitration Eligible in 2014 and a Free Agent in 2017.

27.  Phillippe Aumont RP Arbitration Eligible in 2015 and a Free Agent in 2018.

28.  Michael Stutes  RP Arbitration Eligible in 2014 and a Free Agent in 2018.

Heading into action on Sept.5/2012 John Mayberry JR has hit 35 HRs in 777 Career AB.  This are numbers just a little above a full season.  If Mayberry can produce 30 HRs at the league minimum for wage, it would the teams salary structure.

Heading into 2013,  John Mayberry JR has hit 35 HRs in 777 Career AB. This are numbers just a little above a full season. If Mayberry, Ruf or Brown can produce 20 HRs + (for LF) at the league minimum for wage, it would the teams salary structure.

30.  John Mayberry Jr. OF Arbitration Eligible in 2014 and a Free Agent in 2017.

31.  Domonic Brown  OF  Arbitration Eligible in 2015 and a Free Agent in 2018.  Brown has played really good in Spring Training thus far, however he will need to do it in the regular season.  He has a 3 Slash Line of .236/.315/.703 in 433 Career AB.  He has 12 HRs and 58 RBI.

32.  Jeremy Horst RP  Arbitration Eligible in 2015 and a Free Agent in 2019.

33.  Justin De Fratus RP Arbitration Eligible in 2015 and a Free Agent in 2019.

34. Tyler Cloyd RP  Arbitration Eligible in 2015 and a Free Agent in 2019.

35. B.J. Rosenberg RP  Arbitration Eligible in 2016 and a Free Agent in 2019.

36. Cesar Hernandez  2B  TBD

37.  Sebastian Valle C  Arbitration Eligible in 2015 and a Free Agent in 2018.

38. Erik Kratz  C  Arbitration Eligible in 2015 and a Free Agent in 2018.

39. Ben Revere CF  Arbitration Eligible in 2014 and a Free Agent in 2018.

18 Players at a cost of about 8 Million Dollars bring you up to a total of 162 Million Dollars.

Total Salary Forecast for 2013:  162-172 Million Dollars. Total Salaries for 2012: 174,500 000

Going Forward:

The situation looks extremely bleak in going forward.  On the books for next year only so far is Howard ($25 MIL), Lee ($25 MIL), Hamels ($22.5 MIL) , Papelbon ($13 MIL), Rollins ($11 MIL)  and Adams ($7 MIL) is 103.5 MIL for just 6 players and an additional $20 MIL for Halladay if he throws 225 IP.  Durbin has an option for under a Million.  Now you can see why the franchise did not enter the Free Agent Market in 2013.  Halladay (f under 225 IP), plus Utley will be hard to re-sign after the 2013 year.  This team had best win this year before all of these salary accelerators take place. 

You also have to hope that either Freddy Galvis and Kevin Frandsen can take over the reigns from Chase Utley and Micheal Young this year.  There maybe some other players be picked up for 2014 at the 3B and 2B position as well. 

The club could stand to have some nice production from their cheap OF (Brown, Ruf, Revere and Mayberry Jr.)  – as they are all low salaried players (Delmon Young is a Free Agent in 2014.)  The club will have a problem if 2 of these guys don’t step up to the forefront.  On the other hand, you could see the team trade for another OF around the Trade Deadline if they are contention – and just pay a guy a pro – rated salary for the rest of the year.  Much like the Yankees, the Phillies should push all chips into the middle of the table in 2013!

Coming over from the Twins, Revere is under team control until 2018 and has great speed.  He may be part of an ALL-Entry Level Contract with Mayberry Jr., Ruf or Brown.

Coming over from the Twins, Revere is under team control until 2018 and has great speed. He may be part of an ALL-Entry Level Contract with Mayberry Jr., Ruf or Brown.

For Part 1 of the Phillies Article Series: The Franchise click here:

For Part 2 of the Phillies Article Series: The Hitters click here:

For Part 3 of the Phillies Article Series: The Pitcher click here

For the Montreal Expos/Washington Nationals Franchise 5 Part Series click here

If Cliff Lee, Roy Halladay and Cole Hamels can duplicate their career winning percentage in 2013 – then the rest of the pitchers would just have to go .500 for them to make the playoffs with about 95 Wins.

   *** The views and opinions expressed in this report are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of mlbreports.com ***

Chuck Booth – Lead Baseball Analyst/Website Owner and author of the Fastest 30 Ballgames:   To learn more about my  “The Fastest 30 Ballgames Book” and how to purchase it, click here . You can also follow my Guinness Book of World Record Successful Bid to see all 30 MLB Park in 23 Days- click here.  I am happy to be part of such an awesome Magazine – Style Baseball Website and am looking forward to talking to all of the fans of the MLB.  You can reach me on Twitter here

One of the many games I have witnessed at CBP with a rain delay.  I

One of the many games I have witnessed at CBP with a rain delay. It was free T-Shirt Day and I was still soaked (Disclaimer – actually a Nats fan – but my bro is a fan here on the left)

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About chuckbooth3023

I played competitive baseball until 18 years old and had offers to play NCAA Division 1 University Baseball at Liberty University. Post-concussion symptoms from previous football and baseball head injuries forced me to retire by age 19. After two nearly made World Record Attempts in 2008, I set a New World Record by visiting all 30 MLB Parks (from 1st to last pitch) in only 24 Calendar Days in the summer 0f 2009. In April of 2012, I established yet another new GWR by visiting all 30 Parks in only 23 Calendar Days! You can see the full schedule at the page of the www.mlbreports.com/gwr-tracker

Posted on March 1, 2013, in MLB Payroll and Contracts, MLB Teams: Articles and Analysis, The Rest: Everything Baseball and tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , . Bookmark the permalink. 4 Comments.

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