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Tuesday February.12, 2013

By Jordan Gluck (Prospects/Baseball Operations Correspondent) Follow @JGluck777

Before I show you my top 100 prospects – I want to get you familiar with my grading tactics and styles and what I value most. All prospects have ceilings and very few players reach that ceiling. First lets go through the tools of what I personally value most and where.

Tools: 

Bat:1
Power:2
Speed:3
Glove:4
Arm:5
Makeup:?

Those are the 5(6) tools that scouts use and the scale goes from 20-80. 80 being HOF rare like Giancarlo Stanton Power and 20 being absolutely terrible like Bengie Molina has 20 speed. Most people reading this will probably have more than 20 speed so that’s how pathetic it is.

Jurickson Profar Prospect Highlights:

In the scale graded on the “average Major League Player”

20 is brutal
30 is way below average
40 is below average
50 is average 
60 is above average
70 is ALL- Star 
80 is Hall Of Fame

As far as the tools I value the bat the most as I believe that is the most important tool to be successful. Power is next because of the current rarity and not only the slugging percentage boost that it provides but it also makes matchups more difficult for the opposing sabermetrics staff. Speed is third because in today’s game I feel that it is common where power has really disappeared since the steroid era and it is used on both offense and defense. Defense is becoming more and more recognizable to front offices but I believe defense is something that can be easily improved. The arm is last because it is only important for some positions and is not a major contributor to WAR. Makeup is the big ? And in my rankings good or average makeup won’t help you but bad makeup will hurt you. 

Pitchers are graded on stuff, control, injury history, injury probability, and defense. I do prefer a bat over an arm because it is less of an injury risk. Number 1 pitchers are really rare as in there are about 10 of them in the WORLD right now – think Justin Verlander. 2 starters are more common and very valuable – think Matt Cain. 3 Starters are common but moderately expensive on the open market – think Jason Hammel. 4 Starters can be easily found and most of the time cheaply – think Ricky Nolasco. 5 Starters are back-end and found cheap – think Jeff Francis. 6 and lower starters are found as swing guys or in the Minors and are inexpensive think – Aaron Cook. 
Here is my preference of defensive positions. I believe that hitting is a far and away #1 before defense and you can “hide” some bad gloves.

1. Center Field
2. Shortstop
3. Catcher
4. Second Base
5. Third Base
6. Left field
7. Right field
8. First base

I would take a first baseman with a 7 bat and 6 power with a 4 glove and 35 arm any day over the opposite comparison. 
There are certain positions which in my view hold more value than others. First I don’t value relievers high they will be lower on my list than on others because of the availability of them. I also have a huge gap in between 3-4 starters because of the ease to acquire 4&5 starters cheaply. I value center fielders and Shortstops with OFFENSIVE abilities most. ” Defensive specialists receive a rather low ranking on my list than on others. Left Handed starters have an advantage over Righties – and the more pitches a pitcher has especially a 95mph 4seamer – and a good curve receive big bonuses. A small factor is the club the player is with and their history in developing that type of player for example the Rays with starting pitching and the Royals with bats.

If a player has been suspended for PED use a big fall in my rankings will ensue. If a pitcher has Tommy John for the FIRST time, the rank will fall a little, but not terribly as the recent success of TJ surgery has proven reliability. Shoulder, labrum and rotator cuff injuries to pitchers are killers and their ranking will fall drastically. Concussions won’t have that big of an effect as they are much rarer in baseball than most sports. ACL injuries will have a small negative effect but aren’t a killer because of the success rate of returning from that injury. Hamstring and oblique strains will most likely have little to no effect in the ranking and any unusual or serious injury may cause the ranking to fluctuate. 

Here is what you’ve been waiting for and the top 100 prospects in baseball! 

1. Jurickson Profar- SS Tex

2. Dylan Bundy- P Bal

3. Oscar Taveras – OF Stl

4. Jameson Taillon- P Pit

5. Wil Myers- OF TB
6. Gerrit Cole- P Pit
7. Zack Wheeler- P NY(N)
8.  Travis d’Arnaud - C NY(N)

9. Christian Yelich- OF Mia

10. Kevin Gausman- P Bal
11. Danny Hultzen- P Sea
12. Jose Fernandez- P Mia
13. Mason Williams- OF NY(A)

14. Tyler Skaggs- P Ari

15. Mike Zunino- C Sea
16. Miguel Sano- 3B Min
17. Trevor Bauer- P Cle
18. Taijuan Walker- P Sea
19. Nick Castellanos- 3B Det

20. Billy Hamilton- OF Cin
21. Francisco Lindor- SS Cle
22. Gary Sanchez- C NY(A)
23. Shelby Miller- P Stl
24. Javier Baez- SS Chi(N)
25. Jonathan Singleton- 1B Hou
26. Xander Bogaerts- SS Bos
27. Trevor Story- SS Col

28. Mike Olt- 3B Tex
29. Jedd Gyorko- 3B SD
30. Aaron Sanchez- P Tor
31. Carlos Correa- SS Hou
32. Taylor Jungmann- P Mil

33. Kolten Wong- 2B Stl
34. Trevor May- P Phi
35. Gary Brown- OF SF
36. Bubba Starling- OF KC
37. Archie Bradley- P Ari
38. Alex Meyer- P Min
39. Jake Marisnick- OF Mia
40. Kaleb Cowart- 3B LA(A)
41. Grant Green- 2B Oak
42. Casey Kelly- P SD
43. Noah Syndergaard- P NY(N)
44. George Springer- OF Hou
45. Clayton Blackburn- P SF
46. Nick Franklin- SS Sea

47. James Paxton- P Sea
48. Joey Gallo- 3B Tex
49. Jake Odorizzi- P TB
50. Rymer Liriano- SD
51. Nolan Arenado- 3B Col
52. Byron Buxton- OF Min
53. Zach Lee- P LA(N)
54. Oswaldo Arcia- OF Min
55. Sonny Gray- P Oak
56. Jesse Biddle- P Phi
57. Anthony Rendon- 3B Was
58. Courtney Hawkins- OF Chi(A)
59. Aaron Hicks- OF Min

60. A.J. Cole- P Was

61. Jorge Soler- OF Chi(N)
62. Max Fried- P SD
63. Jackie Bradley Jr.- OF Bos
64. Hak-Ju Lee- SS TB
65. Kyle Zimmer- P KC
66. Dan Straily- P Oak
67. Matt Barnes- P Bos

68. Tyler Austin- OF NY(A)
69. Albert Almora- OF Chi(N)
70. J.R. Graham- P Atl
71. Austin Hedges- C SD
72. Kyle Gibson- P Min
73. Scooter Gennett- 2B Mil
74. C.J. Cron- 1B LA(A)
75. Jared Wells – P Hou
76. David Dahl- OF Col
77. Tyler Thornburg- P Mil
78. Kyle Crick- P SF
79. Cory Spangenberg- 2B SD
80. Brad Miller- SS Sea
81. Robbie Erlin- P SD
82. Christian Betancourt- C Atl
83. Justin Nicolino- P Mia
84. Tommy Joseph- C Phi
85. Robert Stephenson- P Cin
86. Michael Choice- OF Oak
87. Julio Teheran- P Atl
88. Lucas Giolito- P Was
89. Tony Cingrani- P Cin
90. Leonys Martin- OF Tex
91. Chris Stratton- P SF
92. Martin Perez- P Tex
93. Michael Wacha- P Stl
94. Luis Heredia- P Pit
95. Taylor Guerrieri- P TB
96. Addison Russell- SS Oak
97. Josh Bell- OF Pit
98. Matt Purke- P Was
99. Jonathan Schoop- 2B Bal
100. Manny Banuelos- P NY(A)

*** The views and opinions expressed in this report are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of mlbreports.com or their partners.***

A big thank-you goes out to our ‘Prospects/Baseball Operations Correspondent’ Jordan Gluck for preparing today’s featured article.  Jordan wants to be a MLB President of baseball operations one day. He has grown up in south Florida all of his life after moving there when he was two months old. Jordan grew up a FLORIDA Marlins fan but lost his devoting allegiance when they moved to Miami.  He is a senior in high school and will be going to college next year. He will have a heavy focus on roster evaluations, prospects, and the business of baseball!  You can follow Jordan on twitter  Follow @JGluck777

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