Monthly Archives: November 2011
Jonathan Broxton Signs with the Royals: Joakim Soria to be Traded?
Wednesday November 30, 2011
MLB reports – Jonathan Hacohen: Another reliever is off the market. On Tuesday, the Kansas City Royals announced that they had signed former Dodgers closer Jonathan Broxton to a 1-year contract. The deal is reported to be for $4 million, with an additional $1 million in incentives. There will be an official announcement once Broxton passes his physical. Given his health over the past couple of seasons, there are no guarantees that this deal will go through. But assuming that Broxton’s elbow has recovered from his September surgery, he should be an official member of the Royals any day now.
There are many significant items to come out of this signing. Broxton was in heavy demand, with at least a dozen teams interested. The Royals did have to pay a premium to land him, considering the state of his health in recent times. Looking at the numbers, Broxton had three solid seasons between 2006-2008 as a middle reliever and part-time closer. He broke out in a big way in 2009, with 36 saves, 2.61 ERA and 0.961 WHIP. Broxton’s slide began in 2010 and he was shut down effectively for most of 2011. The Royals are banking on a return to form for the 27-year old Broxton. At a reported playing weight of 300 lbs., Broxton will need to come in shape to camp and work hard this offseason to be an effective Major League pitcher. He is still young and has the arm. The big variables will be is the health of his elbow and his commitment to conditioning.
Based in Georgia, it is reported that location played a large part in his decision to sign with the Royals. With an up-and-coming Royals team, Broxton could be a good fit as the team looks to be a playoff contender in the near future. At worst, the team will lose $4 million for a season. But the upside could be a very effective setup man or closer at a reasonable rate. A low risk- high reward proposition for the Royals. So now, where does this leave Joakim Soria? The Royals have denied interest in moving their top closer. I would disagree. Regardless of whether the Broxton signing goes through, it is my gut feeling that Joakim Soria will not be a Royal come 2012.
The Royals have set themselves up quite nicely in the bullpen. After Soria and Broxton, the team still has Aaron Crow, Tim Collins and Greg Holland, among others, as setup men and possible closing options. If Broxton were to take over as closer for Soria in 2012, this would allow the other members of the pen to develop and grow. At least one of these bullpen candidates could be groomed into a closer by late 2012 or 2013. The options are there for the Royals. In fact, with so many valuable bullpen arms, the team could even try Aaron Crow into the rotation. I see his fit likely best in the bullpen, but at the least the option is there…and options are a good thing. When I look at Joakim Soria though, I see a valuable chip that can be moved to better the team in the long term.
After four strong seasons in the Royals pen, Soria is coming off a weak 2011 by his standards. He still finished with 28 saves, but also
had a 4.03 ERA and 1.276 WHIP. The Royals have to ask themselves a couple of questions. Given Soria’s arm troubles in the past, could he get injured? Also, will 2011 be a blip on the radar or a sign of things to come? Let’s face it: pitchers, especially relievers, are injury risks. To compound possible health issues, closers are at risk to implode at any time and lose their job. Soria has been outstanding for several seasons. Is he the next Mariano Rivera or Jonathan Papelbon? Or another B.J. Ryan or Bobby Thigpen? None of us can look into a crystal ball and tell. But what we do now is that there are only a handful of closers in major league history that were effective long term and consistently reliable for their careers. For every Goose Gossage and Trevor Hoffman, there are hundreds of closers that were strong early in their career and faded. With the Royals about 2-3 seasons away from contending, Soria is a luxury that they cannot afford to keep at this stage.
For a team looking to acquire Soria, he is signed to a very reasonable contract. He will make $6 million in 2012 and has 2 team options for 2013-2014 at approximately $8 million per season. The Royals can choose to keep Soria and perhaps be set at the closer position for another decade. Or they can keep a reliever that can be injured or ineffective in 2012, thus discounting heavily his trade value. They also run the risk of losing Soria as a free agent after the 2014 season. The point is that the longer they wait, the less the Royals will get back for Soria. With Broxton and company in the bullpen, the Royals would easily find themselves a setup man and closer for 2012 without likely missing a beat. But given what Soria can bring back in trade value, this is a move that likely should and will happen.
Despite denials from both the Blue Jays and Royals, some outlets have reported discussions of a Colby Rasmus for Joakim Soria swap. Not a bad move for either team. I don’t see this trade happening, unless the Royals include another prospect bat (i.e. Wil Myers) and the Blue Jays include a top starting pitching prospect. The Blue Jays have a glut of outfielders in their system, including Jose Bautista, Rasmus, Travis Snider, Eric Thames and Anthony Gose. The Jays can afford to move an outfielder to acquire the closer they seek. The top free agent closer at this point is Heath Bell. At 34-years of age, I would not be terribly excited to give him the 3-year contract he seeks. Plus he would prefer to play on the West Coast? Ryan Madson? To come close to the 4-year, $44 million contract that the Phillies reportedly offered him would be ludicrous, given that he only has 1 full season of closing experience. For the Jays, given age, contract and ability, their top target should be Soria. The team was looking at Papelbon before he signed with the Phillies- a sign that they do not want to grab a closer off the scrapheap. They want the real deal.
Rasmus has the potential to be an all-star and top outfielder for years to come. A big price for the Jays to pay. One that I just don’
t see happening. Rasmus though will be the price unless the Jays can offer a good package for Soria. I think that they have the will and the ability to make this deal happen. Travis Snider will be the first prospect to be included in the package. He has not shown enough in Toronto and likely needs a change of scenery at this point to thrive. The offensive and defensive potential of this young outfielder are still there. At 23-years of age, the Royals would be acquiring a former 1st round pick who should be major league ready for them in 2012. But what else to include? I could see 1-2 pitching prospects heading to Kansas City. But the name I am stuck on is Brandon Morrow. Acquired from the Mariners for Brandon League, the 27-year old Morrow has pitched two fairly inconsistent seasons in the Jays rotation. He has electric stuff, as shown by his 203 strikeouts in 179 1/3 innings this past season. He is an enigma, much like Edwin Jackson. Some of the best stuff in baseball but unable for some reason to consistently put it together for a full season. The 28-year old Jackson will likely obtain a 3-year deal in the $50 million range this offseason. Considering that Morrow is controllable for another 3 seasons, he could be attractive for the Royals as a potential top starter.
The Soria for Morrow and Snider swap should benefit both the Jays and Royals in the short and long term. Some people may be surprised that the Jays would move Morrow. But given the depth of young starters in their system and perhaps waning confidence in Morrow, the time might be right for him to move on. Thames has already moved ahead of Snider on the depth chart, with Gose likely ready in the next couple of seasons. The time is also right for Snider to find a new home and advance his career. I can see the combination of Moustakas, Butler, Snider, Myers and company pounding out runs for the Royals for many seasons. Joakim Soria, on the other hand, could be signed to a long-term deal by the Jays and become the top closer they have craved for at least the next five seasons. A good old fashioned baseball trade that benefits both teams.
So there we have it folks. Jonathan Broxton is likely to become a Royal very soon. If he does come on board, the Royals are in great shape to move Joakim Soria and fill out some needs in their outfield and starting rotation. But even if the Broxton deal falls through, the Royals have the depth to still trade their closer. The Blue Jays, with one of the top systems in baseball, have the pieces to make a deal with the Royals. Don’t count out Alex Anthopoulos and Dayton Moore. These are two of the sharpest GMs in baseball. Neither one will show their hands until they play their cards. Expect a deal to possibly come as soon as the Winter Meetings. The MLB reports crystal ball appears to be very clear on a deal of this magnitude coming. Stay tuned!
Jonathan Hacohen is the Lead Baseball Columnist & Editor for MLB reports: You can follow Jonathan on Twitter (@JHacohen)
Please e-mail us at: MLBreports@gmail.com with any questions and feedback. You can follow us on Twitter and become a fan on Facebook . To subscribe to our website and have the daily Reports sent directly to your inbox , click here and follow the link at the top of our homepage.
What Is The Future Of The Tampa Bay Rays?
Wednesday November 30, 2011
Sam Evans: Ever since the Rays organization eliminated mistakes from their front office, and combined traditional scouting with advanced numbers, they have produced a winning baseball team in the hardest division in baseball. Unfortunately for the Rays, nobody in Tampa Bay noticed. The Rays have only finished in the top-ten in attendance in the AL twice in their fourteen years of existence. Tampa Bay has the ugliest ballpark in baseball, and now the only question is: How long will they be able to stay there?
What the Rays have done in the last five years is extremely impressive. They have won the division twice and won the wild card once in the last five years despite having the second-lowest payroll in all of baseball. The Rays have discovered market inefficiencies and taken advantage of them. For example, after the 2010 season, the Rays let their top relief pitchers leave in free agency, and they not only received draft compensation, but they easily replaced them in 2011. Also, signing young talented players to long-term deals has been a huge factor in their success. Overall, the Rays have found ways
The Rays have no reason to worry about their on-field product. The team is 368-260 in the last five years, and they show no signs of stopping their pace. They have more pitching depth than almost any other team in baseball, and Evan Longoria is signed through 2016 in what is one of the most team-friendly contracts in all of baseball. Despite having a winning ballclub for four straight years, the Rays are barely filling half of the stadium’s capacity per game.
Low attendances lead to a low payroll, and while the Rays would certainly like a larger payroll, they have still managed to be competitive within the AL East. The new CBA will hurt the teams with the lower payrolls around the league, but it will hit the Rays especially hard. They will no longer be able to take chances on international free agents for a low-cost and they will still be competing with the Red Sox and Yankees revenues.
The main contributor to the Rays low attendance has been the stadium. Tropicana Field is, by far, the worst stadium in baseball. It is the only domed stadium in baseball that is not retractable. The blueprint for the stadium was not well thought out, as evidenced in the catwalks that hang down from the ceiling. The bullpen is are almost nonexistent, and the interior design is the worst in baseball. Not to mention, the ballpark is not at the center of the city’s population unlike most other ballparks in baseball.
After the 2011 postseason, Rays owner Stuart Sternberg said that he was disappointed about the future of baseball in Tampa Bay. That is a very bad sign for Rays fans. Sternberg is not a bad owner, and has shown dedication to making the Rays a more popular franchise in Tampa Bay. The Rays have tried everything to get fans to come to the ballpark, from Vuvezelas to a touch tank to a new enlarged scoreboard. Sadly, none of those techniques have worked to this day.
The Rays technically are signed through 2027 according to St. Petersburg mayor Bill Foster. This contract that the Rays have with the city states that the Rays cannot enter discussions with other communities. However, with the right lawyer, the Rays would be able to escape this lease agreement. If the Rays can’t find a place to build a stadium in South Florida, then there are many cities that would love to host a Major League franchise. If the Rays are forced to move, then Las Vegas is the perfect fit. It is very sad to watch a team not be able to sell out a game in the ALDS.
I really feel bad for those devoted Rays fans. Living in Seattle, I had to go through the process of losing our hometown basketball team, the Sonics. It was a very similar situation where you could sort of sense the relocation coming. The stadium was not up to par, and the league was impatient. I’m not sure if baseball will ever thrive in Tampa Bay, but I am definitely rooting for this organization to find a way to boost attendances and keep their team in Tampa.
***Today’s feature was prepared by our Baseball Writer, Sam Evans. We highly encourage you to leave your comments and feedback at the bottom of the page and share in the discussion with our readers. You can also follow Sam on Twitter***
Please e-mail us at: MLBreports@gmail.com with any questions and feedback. You can follow us on Twitter (@MLBreports) and become a fan on Facebook . To subscribe to our website and have the daily Reports sent directly to your inbox , click here and follow the link at the top of our homepage.
Is Expansion of Interleague Play a Good Idea?
Monday November 28, 2011
Sam Evans: When Major League baseball first instituted interleague play in 1997 it was supposed to draw fans back to the game. It worked, as attendances rose around baseball whenever teams from the other league were in town. Now, in the year 2011, MLB is searching for a new way to draw fans back to the game and level the playing field for teams at the same time.
This offseason, Major League Baseball decided to realign the Astros to the American League. With balance leagues of 15 teams each side, this means that there will be at least one interleague game on days when all thirty teams are playing (Friday, Saturday, Sunday, Opening Day, etc). MLB is trying to make the leagues and divisions more fair, but by doing so they are making interleague play less meaningful. In “Elmo Saves Christmas,” Elmo wishes that he could have Christmas every day. However, when Elmo’s wish comes true, he discovers Christmas is not as fun anymore. I am frightened that this will happen to baseball, and the result is that interleague play will not be as special.
For myself and many other baseball fans, the current interleague schedule is perfect. The summer months are a great time to go watch a team that you otherwise would not normally get to watch. I am afraid that with MLB’s new proposed schedule, the concept of separate leagues will lose almost all of their meaning outside of the postseason. The All-Star game will also not be as exciting because we would have already seen most of these players face each other throughout the year.
If I was Bud Selig, I would recognize that baseball needs to regain popularity among younger people. Baseball needs new ideas in marketing to become more popular around the world. If this new increased interleague schedule is destined to happen, then I would have only one interleague game on those required days and make it nationally televised. This would be similar to NBC’s Game of the Week which was televised and extremely popular from 1960 to 1990.
I think that interleague play over a whole season will have the opportunity to bring more fans to the game. However, I think there is more of a chance that it has little to no impact. Major League baseball needs to focus on getting people talking, to create a buzz. We have seen this idea work when fans are drawn to exciting players such as Strasburg and when fans see other people talking about the game.
If Major League Baseball ends up increasing the interleague games, they definitely shouldn’t have more than two interleague games per day, and they should advertise these games as much as possible. I didn’t find many problems with the current alignment, and I think it would have worked best if they had just stuck with the present schedule. Advances in the game can be great and revolutionize the sport. Increasing interleague play is not the answer in that regard. Expect more schedule and realignments changes to come until Major League Baseball gets it right.
***Today’s feature was prepared by our Baseball Writer, Sam Evans. We highly encourage you to leave your comments and feedback at the bottom of the page and share in the discussion with our readers. You can also follow Sam on Twitter***
Please e-mail us at: MLBreports@gmail.com with any questions and feedback. You can follow us on Twitter (@MLBreports) and become a fan on Facebook . To subscribe to our website and have the daily Reports sent directly to your inbox , click here and follow the link at the top of our homepage.
Interview with the King of Swag: Cardinals Prospect Chris Swauger
Sunday November 27, 2011
Jonathan Hacohen: We are proud to welcome to MLB reports: Chris Swauger, outfield prospect in the St. Louis Cardinals system. When your nickname is Swags and your parent team wins the World Series, life is very sweet. Swags was originally a 26th round pick for the Cardinals in the 2008 draft. A steal for the Cardinals, Swags recently completed his 4th professional season. 2011 was his first full season in AA ball and Swags definitely did not disappoint. Hitting .296 on the season, Swags popped 12 home runs in only 114 games, with 56 RBIs, 52 runs scored, .343 OBP and .442 SLG. Swags also showed a good eye at the plate by only striking out 67 times. The upcoming season represents a big one for Swags, as he looks to move up to AAA Memphis and eventually, the show. One of the most down to earth people that I have ever met, Swags had me in stitches every time we spoke. In my estimation, Swags represents everything that is good and real about the game of baseball. While he is 110% devoted and dedicated to the sport, he does not take himself too seriously and keeps the game fun and loose. Get ready for some great baseball talk- Swags is definitely one of a kind!
Featured on MLB reports, I proudly present my interview with Swags, aka Chris Swauger – Cardinals Prospect:
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Swags: Honestly, I was convinced it wasn’t going to happen. After a few months of every scout telling me I was one of the best seniors available and would go in the top 10 rounds, I sat at my computer for almost two days waiting. I nearly went blind tracking it into the 20th round and just walked away from the computer. After being told by my mother to get a real job, I happened to walk by the study where the online radio broadcast was being streamed and heard my name. I figured it was a mistake and checked the Draft Tracker. There was my name in the 26th Round by the St. Louis Cardinals. As upset as I was before, my emotions turned to pure elation that I would have a chance. They say senior-signs play for a plane ticket and a jockstrap. My jockstrap must have gotten lost in the mail.
Swags: Let me clarify that I PLAYED BASEBALL at The Citadel. That is completely different from being a regular cadet. I did get some mandatory ROTC Training and ran a few obstacle courses, but the only tanks and planes I can pilot are the GI Joe models stuffed in the attic with all my old baby toys. However, I can shine shoes, sweep floors, and make hospital corners on beds with the best of them (I may be qualified to open a retirement home with that type of training). Basically, I gained a great understanding of discipline and time management going to a military school and it has absolutely made me the man I am today.
Swags: I had gotten a letter from the area scout, but the first time I talked to him was when he called me to congratulate me on being selected. I honestly had no idea where I was headed I just wanted to play. I had no idea who wanted me or where I would go. And, for 784 picks, I was certain I was going to graduate school.
Swags: First of all, a Muckdog is a CHAMPION! One of the best experiences of my life was that championship season in Batavia. It was my first dose of professional baseball and I got the prescription strength. First day of practice our cleats were clicking on the rocks in the outfield that used to be a parking lot. I was fortunate enough to get a host family that provided me with transportation, a 1989 Huffy 5-speed mountain bike. The swiveling seat and rotating handlebars came standard on that model. A kickstand did not. The good news was that I could be anywhere I wanted in Batavia in 20 minutes on that hog. The lack of anything really fun to do made our team rely on itself for entertainment and with a group like ours that was not hard to find. In an attempt to keep this interview below an NC-17 rating, I will not go into detail but I will say the shenanigans involved a one-eyed dog, two broken chandeliers, swimmies, M-80s, Cinnamon Toast Crunch, and a clothes hamper being mistaken for a urinal. As far as on the field, we started the season with more errors than hits in our first 3 games, rattled off 12 wins in a row at one point, and rode solid pitching and clutch hitting to a championship celebration. We were rewarded with a trophy, banner, and a Venezuelan flag. Not sure how that snuck in there.
Swags: I appreciate the compliment but I don’t think i deserve to be mentioned with those names just yet. There is no doubt the key to my game is hard work. I will admit I am talented and would not be here if I were not, but work ethic that I learned at the Citadel and with the Cardinals is the only reason I am still around. I have no problem with that. I would not change one thing about my career path thus far. I would change about 20 things. I would have gone in the first round, signed for $4 million, would have been 6’5″…
Swags: There really isn’t that much difference between the teams I have played for in my career. That is a testament to the consistency that exists within our system. We preach executing the fundamentals…and don’t be afraid to hit a 3-run homer. Each team has been my favorite at the time because each stop has its own new experiences and team personality. Looking back I would have to go with Palm Beach because I’m a native Floridian and I loved getting to play in front of my family and friends quite a bit. The weather wasn’t too bad either. I lobbied for shirtless BP a few times but our coaches had no concept of tan lines. I still cherish the memories of the other places as well. The atmosphere and the people in Quads and Springfield were unmatched. Batavia became like a home to me, if only because I was on a first name basis with all 50 residents. Everywhere I have gone I have enjoyed and will continue to do the same.
Swags: I see myself playing catcher if that’s what I have to do to get to the big leagues.
Swags: Rock-star is still my back-up plan. I only recently learned to drive a stick-shift, so I will require more education in order to get in a monster truck. “The Plan” with baseball started out with making my high school team. Then, it was try not to embarrass yourself in high school. Then, it changed to try to play in college. Then, it became try to get drafted my junior year. Then, it became well, there’s always senior year. Then, it was woohoo I got drafted. Then, I thought does this really count as a signing “bonus”? Then, it switched to wow I never knew how bad I was at this. Then, I got better. And THAT has been the key to the whole plan and why it is still in progress. I AM A WORK IN PROGRESS. There is an end game, but “the plan” keeps adjusting with every pitch, out, inning, game, and season.
Swags: I hope so because I certainly don’t want to gain Double A Veteran status. I think I have earned a spot in Memphis, but this game is fickle sometimes and our organization has a tremendous amount of talent. That being said, if my career turns into a NASCAR race (aka another lap around the Texas League) the only thing I can do is be thankful to still be playing and fighting for an opportunity.
Swags: To play in a World Series is every 6-year-old’s dream. Conveniently, I still act like a 6-year-old so it’s still my dream. It was great getting to see some guys that I have played with get to experience that and I hope and pray I get that opportunity some day. It’s what gets me up in the morning; that and the rooster that lives next door to me right now.
Swags: Swag, Swags, Schwaugs, Schwaaaaaaaaugs, Swagga, and Swagness. The only name I’ve never heard on a baseball field is Chris. As far as the swagger goes, that must be a rhetorical question.
Swags: The entire starting outfield to get hurt.
Swags: That would have to be an old St. Louis farmhand who now plays in the Angels organization, Matt Meyer. In only a couple of at bats against him, he has effectively gotten me to swing at a pitch that hit me, shattered two of my bats, and is the reason I started wearing a shin guard.
Swags: In Batavia, I hit one on the basketball court behind right field. I was told later that it went through the hoop and gave someone an H in HORSE.
Swags: I remember the home run and the advice I was given prior to it. I was in Batavia, getting ready to face my first knuckleballer. My hitting coach said, “See the ball at your eyes and swing as hard as you can.” I was fresh out of the Citadel and pretty good at following orders, so I went up there and tomahawked the first pitch I saw out to center. I remember running around the bases with a huge grin knowing a career in beer league softball was waiting for me if the MLB didn’t work out.
Swags: ”Here Comes The Hotstepper” by Ini Kamoze. My goal is to make everyone in the stadium’s head perk up and then immediately start bobbing. Done.
Swags: I try to stay away from superstitions and rituals because it always ends up being too much to keep up with. For some guys it becomes an obsession. I once had a summer ball coach question guys who wrote Bible verses on their shoes. He said “I guess everyone needs a crutch in life.” I think he has reserved his spot in hell.
Swags: I should be allowed to eject the umpire. Self-explanatory.
Thank you again to Chris Swauger for taking the time to join us today on MLB reports. We highly encourage our readers to post at the bottom of the article any questions and/or comments that you may have for Swags. As well, please follow Swags on Twitter (@CSwag8)
Jonathan Hacohen is the Lead Baseball Columnist & Editor for MLB reports: You can follow Jonathan on Twitter (@JHacohen)
Please e-mail us at: MLBreports@gmail.com with any questions and feedback. You can follow us on Twitter and become a fan on Facebook . To subscribe to our website and have the daily Reports sent directly to your inbox , click here and follow the link at the top of our homepage.
Ask the Reports: Sunday November 27th
Sunday November 27, 2011
Jonathan Hacohen: Posted every Weekend: Your top baseball questions from the past week are answered. E-mail all questions to mlbreports@gmail.com, message us on Twitter and post on our Facebook Wall!
Let’s get to your top questions of the week:
Q: I know this is off topic but with the Houston Astros moving to the AL West and constant interleague play, what exactly is the point of an American League and a National League, besides of course the DH?
MLB reports: The existence of the designated hitter is the key to separate the American League and National League. Without the DH, there is no difference between the leagues. Otherwise, having separate leagues would simply be a way to divide up the divisions and teams. With daily interleague games coming, the mystique of having separate leagues is starting to fall by the wayside. An idea that was thrown around was to have the DH in play in National League parks and no DH in American League parks during interleague play. That would create strong interest in the different styles of play in the different parks and peak strong interest in interleague play. But unfortunately, it appears that idea has been scrapped for now. Long term, baseball needs to decide if it will have a designated hitter or not. There are arguments on both sides. Traditionalists like myself would like to scrap the DH all together and introduce National League style baseball throughout baseball. With the in-game moves and decisions that must be included with the pitcher hitting, I prefer the NL game. But others see pitchers hitting as hurting the game with “automatic outs” and risking the health and safety of pitchers by having them hit in the NL. This argument will continue likely for decades until a resolution is agreed upon one way or the other. Until then, we will continue to have two different leagues in place. One has a designated hitter and one does not. With the increase in interleague play, the line separating the leagues has become even blurrier. Great question!
MLB reports: The newest member of the Toronto Blue Jays will be turning 26 this week (November 30th birthday)- so be sure to wish him a Happy Birthday! Born in Venezuela, Valbuena is a utility infielder at this point in his career, playing second, short and third. Coming up originally with the Mariners originally in 2008, Valbuena was traded in December 2008 as part of the Franklin Gutierrez swap. Since then, Valbuena has played parts of three seasons with the Indians. In 229 career games, Valbuena has 13 home runs, 57 rbis, 84 runs, .226 avg, .286 obp and .344 slg. Considering that he was designated for assignment, the Jays picked him up for cash considerations makes sense. He has shown little at the major league level thus far, but is young and known for a strong glove. Valbuena has shown steady improvement in the last three years in the minors, with a breakout season in AAA Columbus in 2011. Valbuena popped a strong 17 home runs in 113 games, with 75 rbis, 64 runs, hitting .302 with a .307 OBP and .476 SLG. If those numbers can be replicated to any degree at the major league level, the Jays may have a hidden gem uncovered. At worst, we could be seeing another Ramon Santiago type player or the Venezuelan John McDonald. The Jays need a backup infielder on the roster and Valbuena could be the answer. Or possibly their next starting second baseman for the next five seasons. Doubtful…but it could happen!
MLB reports: Wow, that is a mountain of questions!!! Firstly, Yonder Alonso would look great on the Indians. In fact, he would look great in 29 other lineups. The kid is a future superstar, no doubt in my mind. It is just a question of finding him a permanent home. The Reds have tried him in left field, but do not see him as a long-term solution there. The team will either have to move him, or open up first by trading franchise star Joey Votto. At this point, it looks like Alonso will be the one to go. I am a big Matt LaPorta supporter, but long-term he does not appear to be the solution for the Indians. He can always move to the outfield or DH, but a change of scenery is likely the best option for him. LaPorta never lived up to the expectations of being traded for C.C. Sabathia and both the team and player need to move on. The Indians have prospects to move, although not as many after all their 2011 swaps including the Ubaldo Jimenez trade. I can’t see the team wanting to trade more parts, as they cannot deplete their farm. Given what other teams can offer for Alonso, mainly the Rays, I don’t see an Alonso move in the future of the Indians. It would be a nice acquisition, but not likely to happen. Nady on the other hand would be a nice low risk pickup. If healthy, he could bring the leadership and experience the team needs. Championship teams need strong extra parts and Xavier Nady would be a strong fit in that regard. As long as comes cheap and doesn’t expect to start, I would say that is a done deal. The team may look for one or two more strong bats for its lineups, but that would not stop a potential Nady signing.
MLB reports: Poor Gio Gonzalez. Why the harsh words? In all seriousness, I see where you are going with the comparison. High walk, high strikeout pitcher. After a 3.23 ERA in 2010, Gio lowered it more to 3.12 in 2011. He has enjoyed near identical 1.31 WHIPs the last two seasons. He does not give up a ton of hits, but the walks are very high. He led the league with 91 walks after allowing 92 the year before. The home/road splits tell a big part of the story. This season, Gio went 10-5 at home, with a 2.70 ERA and 1.227 WHIP. On the road, Gio went 6-7 with a 3.62 ERA and 1.424 WHIP. Pitching in the Oakland ballpark clearly has a strong effect on his numbers. Similar splits are found in his 2010 numbers as well. Thus the conclusion is likely that taking Gio Gonzalez out of Oakland and putting him in a hitter’s ballpark (say Wrigley, Fenway or the Rogers Centre) and his numbers will likely balloon. Pitching in Oakland likely masks much of his warts. He just turned 26 in September so he still has time to develop. The next two seasons will tell the tale. He could become a superstar or the next Scott Kazmir. Until those walk totals start to drop, you could be on to something. The kid has a ton of talent, don’t get me wrong. But he is far from a sure thing. Until then, your comparison could be close. Thank you for the comment!
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Jonathan Hacohen is the Lead Baseball Columnist & Editor for MLB reports: You can follow Jonathan on Twitter (@JHacohen)
Interview with Bruce Spitzer: Author of Extra Innings
Friday November 25, 2011
Jonathan Hacohen: Q&A with Bruce Spitzer, author of the novel Extra Innings about Ted Williams returning to life through cryonics, to be released this spring.
Q. In Extra Innings, cryonics and science bring Ted Williams back to life in 2092. What was your inspiration for the concept of the book?
A. I never saw him play but always admired the man. I have friends who knew him well and every one of them has a story about his larger-than-life persona—good fodder for a book. Then one night five years ago I was watching a Red Sox game on TV and Don Orsillo and Jerry Remy were talking about Ted Williams. In between innings I was channel surfing a bit (who doesn’t?) and landed on something like the Discovery Channel, maybe the History Channel. The program was about mummies and a belief in life after death. I connected the dots: the real-life cryonic preservation of the late Ted Williams and the human desire for life after death and began to imagine what it would be like if indeed Ted was successfully reanimated one day. Thus Extra Innings the novel was born.
Q: Why Ted Williams, and why the year 2092, any particular relevance?
A: If you’re going to fictionalize an account of a famous person I can’t think of many better than Ted Williams who in real life (or death), as most people know, was cryonically preserved when he passed away in 2002. For a novelist, he was a wellspring of source material. I did a lot of research so that when I placed him in a particular situation I would know how he would react—even his verbal patterns, in particular, his famous cussing. The year 2092 was chosen to set the novel in because it is far enough in the future to believe that science may make cryonic reanimation possible, but not too far out to make verisimilitude difficult.
Q: You chose to write about baseball as your first novel. Why baseball in particular? What is your baseball background?
A: I played the game only as a boy but, obviously, you need to know something about it to write a baseball book. As an undergrad I did play-by-play on the radio and took a sports reporting track for a while. I’ve been a writer my entire professional life and have been published in newspapers, magazines and online. But Extra Innings is my first foray into fiction. So, after developing “the hook” for the story in my mind, it seemed like it was a mountain I was ready to climb. I have a journalism degree and use it every day. I’ve also been a PR executive for a long time. Quite a few novelists have worked in PR and advertising, which, historically, require good writing skills. The PR types include Danielle Steele and Kurt Vonnegut; and James Patterson is a former copywriter and ad exec. Far be it from me to compare myself to these authors, but as a writer and PR person, you must master the skill of quality research, which was invaluable in writing Extra Innings.
Q: Your novel has been five years in the making. Please describe the process of creating this book from beginning to end.
A: The first draft took a year to write and I rewrote and revised for another four years. I rise at 4 a.m. each day and write for 2 ½ hours before going off to work at the job I love in Boston where I write and edit other stuff. I also work on fiction for at least a few hours on one day each weekend. So, it is basically a six-day-a-week passion, but because I do it so early in the morning I still have time left for my family, career, friends and other interests.
Q: Would it be fair to say that this book falls mainly into the categories of baseball and science fiction. How would you describe the genre of the Extra Innings?
A: The novel is general fiction, and commercial fiction, but it has elements of speculative fiction (a subset of sci-fi), a sports novel (of course), and a military thriller (mirroring the “first life” of Ted Williams).
Q: Will a traditional baseball fan enjoy this book? Most baseball readers tend to enjoy reading about the history of the game, its players and statistics. For those baseball readers, how will they feel about this book?
A: I believe baseball fans (and not just Red Sox fans) will revel in it. As a baseball reader myself, it was a joy to research and write—what fun to re-imagine a new life for the greatest hitter of all time and see him play baseball again. However, EI is more that just a baseball book. It’s a story about second chances and redemption. For all of his success on the field in his real life, Williams was flawed in many ways off of the field. In his second life he is compelled to answer the question, what’s more important, a chance to win his first World Series or a chance to be a better man? In addition there are numerous subplots to draw-in a variety of readers. The narrative resonates with the consequences of the major issues we face in our world today—the steroids debate in sports, global warming and flooding, corporate greed, technology run rampant, and the moral ambiguity of war. One of my female beta readers even said, “This is a love story disguised as a baseball book.”
Q: Did you consult with any baseball officials in writing the Extra Innings?
A: There was a lot of research done at such disparate places as the Boston Athenaeum; the New England Sports Museum; the National Baseball Hall of Fame and Museum in Cooperstown (who put up with me traipsing in on the morning after induction weekend); The MIT Media Lab and its Personal Robots Group; and the Smithsonian National Air and Space Museum, Steven F. Udvar-Hazy Center (to check out the fighter plane Ted pilots). The authors who provided terrific background material included Leigh Montville (Ted Williams: The biography of an American Hero); Bill Nowlin (Ted Williams at War); the late David Halberstam (The Teammates); John Underwood (It’s Only Me: The Ted Williams We Hardly Knew); and, of course, Ted Williams the author (The Science of Hitting and My Turn at Bat—The Story of My Life), both with John Underwood.
Q: Can you tell us more about your research process studying Ted Williams? Did you have a focus on the player only or the game during his era?
A: All of the above. There are situations I put him in that draw specifically on his baseball (and military) history. It was an important part of the plot and resulted in enjoyable twists in the story as he tries to harness some of his old skills and memory while trying to adapt to a new baseball paradigm and a dystopian future-world in general.
Q: With the book now at completion, looking back, would you have done anything different?
A: Not too much. I had an outline in my head and pretty much followed that map. I actually wrote the ending first, which, for some reason, many authors do, probably because it gives you a target to shoot for. There were a few surprises along the way—things that I hadn’t anticipated. For example, after starting the novel it dawned on me that the first person in the world brought back from the dead is going to know if there is life after death, having nothing at all to do with cryonics. That is, knowing if there is an afterlife and if God exists. People are going to want to know what you know!, particularly religious folks. As the only person who knows, Ted Williams is presented with numerous challenges in the novel.
Q: When is the book set for release? How did you pick the release date?
A: Extra Innings will be released to coincide with the beginning of baseball season this spring, which, in New England, should be interesting because we will be celebrating the 100th birthday of Fenway Park. Fenway plays a central role in the novel 80 years from today.
Q: What is your planned schedule in promoting the Extra Innings?
A: We’re working on that now. When the schedule is set you’ll see it announced at http://www.extrainningsthenovel.com/ and on Twitter@BruceSpitzer1.
Q: Where will the novel be available?
A: You will be able to order Extra Innings as a traditional book or an ebook at Amazon and Barnes & Noble online and other select distributors, and it will also be made available in select independent bookstores. Check out http://ExtraInningsTheNovel.com for a list sometime after the New Year.
Q: Can readers contact you?
A: Yes! That would be great. The email address is Bruce@BruceSpitzer.com.
Q: Will we see another baseball book in the future from Bruce Spitzer?
A: Never say never. But the next book is not about baseball. However, I can tell you that it is another high-concept novel.
Q: If Ted Williams were alive today, what would he think of the current game of baseball? Do you believe that he would want to play Major League Baseball in 2012?
A: Oh yeah, I think he’d want to play today. Any player would if he still had the skills. I’ve talked to enough ex-players to know that most everyone misses it. The question is, how would he like playing in the year 2092?
MLB reports: A big thank you to Bruce Spitzer for taking the time to speak with us today on Extra Innings. Personally, I can’t wait to read this baseball thriller! Extra Innings will be available this coming spring. Keep an eye out for our review of Extra Innings, coming soon.
About the author: 
Bruce E. Spitzer has been a writer and editor his entire professional life. Spitzer’s writing has won awards from the New England Press Association, the International Association of Business Communicators, and the Publicity Club of Boston. His writing has appeared in newspapers, magazines and online. He is a public relations executive and writes the “Dollars and Sense” business column for the MetroWest Daily News, and is also the editor of a business trade journal, Massachusetts Banker Magazine. Spitzer is a graduate of Boston University and Rutgers and lives in the Boston area with his wife and young son. Extra Innings is his first novel.
Jonathan Hacohen is the Lead Baseball Columnist & Editor for MLB reports: You can follow Jonathan on Twitter (@JHacohen)
Please e-mail us at: MLBreports@gmail.com with any questions and feedback. You can follow us on Twitter and become a fan on Facebook . To subscribe to our website and have the daily Reports sent directly to your inbox , click here and follow the link at the top of our homepage.
Understanding the New MLB Collective Bargaining Agreement
Friday November 25, 2011
Rob Bland (Baseball Writer – MLB reports): With the new Collective Bargaining Agreement signed between Major League Baseball and the Major League Baseball Players Association, comes an opportunity to see where baseball has failed and succeeded. While many have said that the agreement hurts small market teams or is unfair to teams with bigger scouting departments, I believe it affects all teams in a grand way. By now, most of you have heard the details of the agreement, so I will only touch upon a few of the main points.
Houston Astros will move to the AL West in 2013. There will be 15 teams per league and interleague games played all year round.
Interleague all year round can be a tricky subject. Especially if an AL team is playing interleague games in the last week of a playoff race, and their pitcher has to hit. This may cause a major headache, where teams will want the designated hitter in both leagues.
A second wild card team will be added no later than 2013.
The two wild card teams of each league will play in a one game winner take all sudden death playoff. This can give a distinct disadvantage to the winning wild card team, as they will only be able to use their ace once in the LDS.
The Elias system of ranking free agents as Type A, Type B or Type C (unranked) will no longer be used to gauge compensation for the teams losing free agents.
The only way a team will receive compensation for losing a free agent is if they make a guaranteed qualifying one year contract equal to the average salary of the top 125 highest paid players. This is approximately $12.4M for this year.
The minimum salary will rise from $414,000 in 2011 to $480,000 in 2012. It will also rise to $490,000 in 2013 and $500,000 in 2014.
Major League Baseball Amateur Draft Signing Deadline will not be between July 12 and July 18, depending on when the All-Star Game is played.
This pushes the deadline for drafted players to sign up a month. Seeing as most players wouldn’t sign until the last minutes of the deadline in the past, this will make a huge difference. Signed players can be assigned to teams and get their professional careers started. Teams will be able to develop them for longer and put their stamp on them sooner.
Each team will be assigned an aggregate signing bonus pool for their first 10 rounds of the draft.
The number of money available to be spent is dependent upon a team’s standing in the draft and how many picks they possess. Therefore, if a team picks 1st overall and has 14 picks in the first 10 rounds, they will have more available money to spend than a team that drafts 30th and has only 10 picks. After the first 10 rounds, teams may only sign players for no more than $100,000. If a player signs for more than that amount, the excess gets counted against the pool of money for the first 10 rounds. What this means is that if a player is drafted in the 18th round and signs for $125,000, the extra $25,000 goes against their spending pool.
It is possible to go over this threshold; however MLB has placed very large penalties for doing so. If a team goes over their allotted pool by 0-5%, a 75% tax is implemented.
- 5-10% over equals a 75% tax + loss of 1st round draft pick in the following draft
- 10-15% over equals 100% tax + loss of 1st and 2nd round draft pick in the following draft
- 15%+ equals 100% tax + loss of 1st round draft pick in the next two drafts
While this seems like it could be a recipe for disaster, the MLB recommended slots will be higher and more realistic than in the past. The top 10 picks in the draft will have slots of the following:
1 – $7.2M
2 – $6.2M
3 – $5.2M
4 – $4.2M
5 – $3.5M
6 – $3.25M
7 – $3M
8 – $2.9M
9 – $2.8M
10 – $2.7M
This represents approximately 1.5 times the slot from previous years, so the cap will not be as drastic as most would assume.
There will be a new Competitive Balance Lottery to award draft picks to small market and low revenue teams.
The 10 teams in the smallest markets with the lowest revenue will be entered into a lottery for 6 draft picks after the first round, with the teams with the lowest winning percentage the previous year having a higher chance of picking first.
Each club will be given a pool of money to spend on International free agents.
For 2012 and 2013 international free agent signing period, the soft cap will be $2.9M. After that, teams will be given more or less money dependent on record in the previous year. There will also be penalties for going over this limit, which are as follows:
- 0-5% – 75% tax
- 5-10% – 75% tax and will not be able to spend more than $500,000 on one player
- 10-15% – 100% tax and will not be able to spend more than $500,000 on one player
- 15%+ – 100% tax and will not be able to spend more than $250,000 on one player
Players, managers and coaches are prohibited from using smokeless tobacco anytime that fans are permitted into the ballpark. They also must not be visible in interviews or club interviews. They may not carry the product on them or in their uniforms.
Most see this as a deterrent for the players from using the products and giving less exposure to impressionable youth. While this may be true, players will still continue to use smokeless tobacco, they will just keep their wads out of sight. No more seeing guys like Nick Swisher with his lip stuck out halfway to the pitcher, that’s for sure.
HGH Blood testing will be implemented starting in Spring Training 2012.
There are many arguments for and against this, and I agree with both. It eases the minds of millions of people that the “Steroid Era” is behind us, yet if testing is done during Spring Training, it gives ample time for someone to get off HGH and resume normal workouts before tested. Tests will also be administered with reasonable cause throughout the season, and random, unannounced testing could be done as early as next off-season.
New helmets designed by Rawlings will be used by 2013.
These helmets will protect up to speeds of 100mph, as opposed to the helmets used now, which protect a batter up to speeds of 90mph. Previous versions have been worn by players coming back from concussions such as David Wright, but players disapproved because they were too bulky and uncomfortable. This version will apparently be much sleeker and more comfortable.
If a player is selected to play in the All-Star Game, he must attend, unless excused by the Office of the Commissioner.
There will be a Social Media Policy in place for all players, coaches and executives.
The policy is being drawn up, and there is a chance that you could see fan favorites on Twitter such as Logan Morrison of the Miami Marlins slightly more censored. His new manager, Ozzie Guillen, could also see censorship or face penalties. I think that part of the allure of the game is that players speak their minds. From Dirk Hayhurst opening up about life in the minor leagues, to Logan Morrison saying what he feels on Twitter, it is something that can bring more youth to the games. Censoring these players may not be in the best interest of the game, but I will reserve judgment until I find out the exact parameters of the policy.
Instant replay will be expanded.
Replay will be used on plays involving “trapped” catches, as well as fair or foul ball calls. While everyone loves the human element of the game, and most argue that more instant replay will slow the game down, I am of the ilk that it will speed the game up. Rather than a manager visiting the umpire to argue a call, yell for five minutes, kick dirt on him and get ejected, the umpire crew can simply go straight to replay, and the play is withheld or upturned in a matter of a minute.
This is basically a very condensed version of the whole CBA, but radical changes are certainly abound in the MLB. While some are seen as good changes, and some are seen as bad, I am fairly neutral on the matter. Whereas the MLB achieved close to its goal of having a hard slotting system, the MLBPA also received higher minimum salaries and less restrictions on free agents. It is a give and take system, and it will take a few years to really see how it affects teams. Expect teams and agents to find loopholes in the agreement and exploit them to their greatest benefit.
***Today’s feature was prepared by our Baseball Writer, Rob Bland. We highly encourage you to leave your comments and feedback at the bottom of the page and share in the discussion with our readers. You can also follow Rob on Twitter.***
Please e-mail us at: MLBreports@gmail.com with any questions and feedback. You can follow us on Twitter and become a fan onFacebook . To subscribe to our website and have the daily Reports sent directly to your inbox , click here and follow the link at the top of our homepage.
Interview with Orioles Catching Prospect: Tanner Murphy
Thursday November 24, 2011
Jonathan Hacohen: We are proud to welcome to MLB reports: Tanner Murphy, catching prospect for the Baltimore Orioles. Tanner was a 22nd round selection for the Orioles in the 2010 draft. At 19-years of age, Tanner recently completed his 2nd season with the Orioles organization, playing in the Gulf Cost League. Coming off elbow surgery, Tanner looks to be healed and ready for the start of spring training. 2012 represents a big year for Tanner as continues to work his way up the Orioles ladder and one day join the big club in Baltimore.
Featured on MLB reports, I proudly present my interview with baseball prospect, Tanner Murphy:
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________
MLB reports: Welcome to MLR reports Tanner and thank you for taking the time today for us. Who was your favorite baseball player growing up, that you most idolized and patterned your game after?
Tanner Murphy: Growing up, I idolized Ken Griffey Jr. And Paul Lo Duca.
MLB reports: Which current MLB star do you most admire and why?
Tanner Murphy: The current MLB player would be Matt Wieters because he smart and smooth behind the plate.
MLB reports: Reflecting on your career to-date, what are your proudest accomplishments on the baseball field?
Tanner Murphy: I would have to say every game that our team wins and all games when our pitchers feel comfortable no matter what happens on the mound.
MLB reports: What are your goals going into the 2012 season?
Tanner Murphy: I have many many goals going into this next season. A couple main goals are to stay healthy the whole season and to become a better catcher and hitter than I was the year before and learn.
MLB reports: When you first found out you were drafted, what was going through your mind?
Tanner Murphy: Honestly, the first thing that what went through my mind was: Wow! It was almost surreal. I worked so hard towards that day growing up.
MLB reports: What round did you expect to be drafted and what was the process like signing with the Orioles?
Tanner Murphy: I really wasn’t thinking an exact round, just was going with the flow. The process was a lot of phone calls and thinking and guessing. It was a very busy process.
MLB reports: What do you consider your greatest baseball skill(s)?
Tanner Murphy: I feel that I am pretty skilled in all aspects of the game, but everyday I can learn and get better to become the best that I can be.
MLB reports: What facets of your game do you most wish to improve upon?
Tanner Murphy: I feel every part of my game. There is always room for improvement. It is a game of failure and you can’t be perfect in this game.
MLB reports: How do strikeouts and walks figure into your game?
Tanner Murphy: Strikeouts actually tell you a lot about your next at-bats and can help me become a better hitter. Walks are the same way- just reading the pitchers.
MLB reports: Do you see any of these items changing over time and to what degree?
Tanner Murphy: Yes. I see that from strikeouts and walks I will continue to get better learning which pitches that I can handle and can’t handle during each of my at-bats.
MLB reports: Long term do you see yourself staying behind the plate considering Matt Wieters is the current starting catcher? How do you view your role in the organization?
Tanner Murphy: As for now, I do see myself still behind the plate. Given my age, I have some time. I feel that my role is to get better and do everything I can do to help the big league club win.
MLB reports: How do you see defense as part of your overall game?
Tanner Murphy: Defense is the most important part of my game. Being a catcher, I see everything and handle the pitchers. My job consists of making the pitchers get through the game, no matter the situation and to know the other hitters.
MLB reports: If you had to look into a crystal ball, when do you see your expected time of arrival in the big leagues and what do you think you need to do most to get there?
Tanner Murphy: I can’t really put a time on getting there. I just need to do everything and work hard to get myself there. No matter how long it takes.
MLB reports: Has pro ball been everything you expected it to be thus far?
Tanner Murphy: For the most part yes. There have been some things I wasn’t expecting, but that is the case in everyday life as well.
MLB reports: What do you do for fun when you are not playing baseball? Best friend(s) on the team that you most hang out with and what do you guys like to do to chill?
Tanner Murphy: When baseball is done for the season, I just hang out, travel, visit family, watch some football and basketball (when there is not a lockout). But doing that can only last for a couple of months, until the end of November. At the start of December, I usually start training again getting ready for the season.
MLB reports: Tell us more about your recent elbow surgery: what was the nature of the injury leading up to the surgery and how is your recovery going?
Tanner Murphy: I had surgery on my right elbow- my throwing arm. I had an ulnar nerve transposition. The nerve when I was throwing was so loose that when throwing, it would move. When I was throwing then moving back every time it became loose to the point that I could feel it. I had numbing in my ring and pinky fingers. As for my recovery, I am ahead of schedule. I have no more numbing and have a full range of motion. I should be all ready for spring training come February/March.
MLB reports: Do you have a favorite pre-game meal?
Tanner Murphy: I never really had a favorite pre-game meal. But I always do the exact same thing before every game.
MLB reports: Final Thoughts?
Tanner Murphy: Glad to help out. For the readers: hope you enjoy! Thanks MLB reports.
Thank you again to Tanner Murphy for taking the time to join us today on MLB reports. We highly encourage our readers to post at the bottom of the article any questions and/or comments that you may have for Tanner. As well, please follow Tanner onTwitter (@TMurphy20)
Jonathan Hacohen is the Lead Baseball Columnist & Editor for MLB reports: You can follow Jonathan on Twitter (@JHacohen)
Please e-mail us at: MLBreports@gmail.com with any questions and feedback. You can follow us on Twitter and become a fan on Facebook . To subscribe to our website and have the daily Reports sent directly to your inbox , click here and follow the link at the top of our homepage.
Did Braun and Verlander Deserve Their MVP Awards?
Wednesday November 23, 2011
Sam Evans: Over the last two days, Major League Baseball announced their 2011 MVPs. Justin Verlander of the Detroit Tigers took home the award in the American League while Ryan Braun of the Milwaukee Brewers won the National League award. Now that the voting is over, we can look at who really deserved the awards.
American League MVP: In August, Buster Olney sparked discussion on the AL MVP, when he said on Twitter that if he had a vote it would go to Verlander. At the time, I thought that the award was Jose Bautista‘s to lose. However, after watching Verlander dominate team after team, it became clear to me that this was the most valuable player in the American League. He meant more to his team than any other player in the league. Verlander finished with a with a 2.40 ERA in 251 innings. Verlander threw more innings than any other pitcher in the majors, and to have that strong of numbers in those innings makes it even more impressive.
Verlander also threw his second career no-hitter this year, and led the majors in strikeouts. Jacoby Ellsbury and Jose Bautista are not shabby candidates either, but they didn’t have the effect Verlander did on his team. The Tigers expected to win every single time that Verlander was on the mound. Overall, even if the BBWAA made this decision based on Verlander’s twenty-four wins, it was the right choice. Verlander became the first pitcher to win the MVP since Dennis Eckersley in 1992.
National League MVP: In somewhat of a surprising decision, Brewers outfielder Ryan Braun was awarded the NL MVP award, receiving 20 out of 32 first place votes, and a total of 388 points. Finishing a close second was Dodgers outfielder Matt Kemp, who received 10 first place votes, and a total of 332 points.
First of all, these were obviously the top two candidates. They both had amazing years that should not go unnoticed despite who actually won the award. What I think it came down to was that Braun made the playoffs and Kemp didn’t. This is somewhat understandable because you can make the argument that if a certain player had such a big impact on their team then they should have made the playoffs. The real question is did Braun really make his team that much better, or did he just play on a much better team? Also, did the distractions surrounding the Dodgers and its ownership affect Kemp’s chances of winning the MVP? It definitely did not help his case.
To truly compare these players first you have to evaluate their defense. Kemp played a much harder position then Braun and he had to cover more ground. Kemp had a UZR (Ultimate Zone Rating, a stat used to show how much ground a player covers) of -4.6. Braun had a UZR of -3.8. Neither of these is very impressive, so I guess we can just call this comparison a draw.
As for offense, in my own opinion, Kemp had a stronger year. Both players were very similar in normal statistics. Braun hit .332 with 33 HR and 111 RBI. Kemp hit .324 with 39 HR and 126 RBI. What impresses me is that Kemp scored more runs than Braun despite not having Prince Fielder batting behind him. Also, Kemp had a harder ballpark to hit in, and plays in a stronger pitching division. Kemp was really the only dangerous hitter in the Dodgers lineup, so pitchers could avoid him more than Braun.
According to Baseball-Reference WAR, Kemp was by far the more valuable player. Kemp led the NL with 10.0 WAR, which make Braun’s 7.7 seem miniscule. Kemp also led the National League in total bases, with 353, and Adjusted OPS + with 171.
These two players had almost identical years. If I had a vote, it would have gone to Kemp. But I don’t think Braun winning is anything to get worked up about. A strong case could have been made for him, as shown by Braun being the winner of the 2012 NL MVP award.
***Today’s feature was prepared by our Baseball Writer, Sam Evans. We highly encourage you to leave your comments and feedback at the bottom of the page and share in the discussion with our readers. You can also follow Sam on Twitter.***
***Today’s feature was prepared by our Baseball Writer, Sam Evans. We highly encourage you to leave your comments and feedback at the bottom of the page and share in the discussion with our readers. You can also follow Sam on Twitter.***
Projecting MLB Sluggers: The Top 5 in 2012
Tuesday November 22, 2011
Peter Stein (Fantasy Baseball Analyst – MLB reports): Accompanied with my projections and analysis, I profile the top-five fantasy baseball sluggers to target for 2012. I encourage your thoughts and feedback!
1. Ryan Braun
2012 Projections: .321 38 HR 119 RBI 108 R 32 SB
Given that he is at the prime of his career having just turned 28 on November 17, Ryan Braun ranks at the top of the list. He is the complete package and enjoyed a 2011 season that had fantasy owners drooling and was named the 2011 NL MVP today! He was a machine in all five of the standard fantasy categories with a .332 average, 33 home runs, 111 RBI’s, 109 runs and 33 SB’s. The exciting thing is that the will only continue to get better. The home run total has the potential to reach 40 and I don’t see reason why Braun won’t steal 30 bases again. Braun is by no means one of the speediest players baseball, but he is truly one of the smartest base runners. He steals at a career success rate of 80% and was only caught 6 times in 2011. Some people wonder about the effect that Prince Fielder’s potential departure will have on Braun, but I am not overly concerned. Braun is truly a special and hall of fame caliber player because he not only possesses all of the physical tools, but also is one of the game’s smartest players. He continually makes adjustments and just has such an impressive knowledge of the game that allows him to better utilize his talents than others.
2012 Projections: .312 39 HR 120 RBI 117 R 12 SB
Albert Pujols has been the best fantasy player in baseball since he emerged onto scene in 2001. Ten Ruth-like seasons later, the slugger might find himself in a new uniform. Furthermore, his somewhat “down” season in 2011 has caused concern for many fantasy owners. But before we expect an A-rod-like decline, lets take a closer look at the numbers. Through the Cardinal’s first 54 games, Pujols batted .257 with 8 home runs and 28 RBI. That means in the team final 108 games, which included the time missed with the wrist injury, he batted .322 with 29 home runs and 71 RBI’s. That is the Pujols that we have all been accustomed to over the last decade. I will not go into detail explaining just how good Pujols has been throughout his career because you should already know by now. Last year was the first season he did not put up .300 30 HR and 100 RBI. He missed this feat by one RBI and one point of average, in a season that included an uncharacteristic 50 game stretch (contract issues?). I expect Pujols to be back in St. Louis next season, and all though he well on the back nine of his career, he is still too good and has a lot left in the tank. Expect the usual numbers, the type that he continued to put up despite his slow start to the season in 2011.
2012 Projections: .336 34 HR 122 RBI 109 R 2 SB
Did you know that Miguel Cabrera is only 28 years old? I sure didn’t. He has been an offensive force for almost a decade. In my mind, he is the game’s best pure hitter and will only continue to get better. He managed to have another elite season in 2011, despite all the controversy and off the field issues he had to deal with. He continues to improve at the plate and BB right is on the incline while his K rate declines. For these reasons, and his career .317 average, there is no reason to not expect his average to hover around .330. He is an average anchor for your lineup that will also exceed 30 HR and 100 RBI’s and runs. The only thing he does not do is steal bases. However, refer to my article last week, Cabrera is the type of average and power anchor that can allow your team roster a space for the one-trick ponies, i.e. Michael Bourn. Overall, just expect more of the same from Cabrera: which means elite production in four of the five standard fantasy categories, average, runs, home runs, and runs batted in.
4. Matt Kemp
2012 Projections: .296 33 HR 108 RBI 103 R 34 SB
At 27 years of age, Matt Kemp is also just entering his prime. He missed a 40/40 season by just one home run and batted .326 and drove in 126 runs, which led to being the runner-up for the 2011 NL MVP award. However, he is easily the most difficult to predict on the list. If I expected him to improve upon or even just repeat his 2011 season, he would be at the top of the list. We simply cannot expect Kemp to be this fantasy-tastic again in 2012. Matt Kemp’s .380 BABIP lead all of major league baseball, however he does hold a career .352 clip, which is tops in baseball. Therefore, expect regression in his batting average in the .290-.300 range. Kemp also strikes out a lot, not like in 2010, but he still struck out in 23 percent of his at bats in 2011. When you are not putting the ball in play at a high rate, there is potential for a lot of volatility. Given his skill set, 2011 was essentially a best-case scenario for Kemp. The other four guys on the list make contact much more consistently and therefore have been more consistent throughout the career and are easier to project forward. Furthermore, I am not encouraged by the line up around built around Kemp. He is still elite, but it is unwise to expect him to repeat 2011. He will come down to earth but still provide across the board value for your team.
5. Joey Votto
2012 Projections: .316 32 HR 112 RBI 115 R 11SB
At 28 years of age, Joey Votto is also in the prime of his career. His 2011 season, with heavy expectations after an MVP season, was a down season for Votto. A down season in which he batted .309 29 HR 103 RBI 8 SB. And if this type of season is Votto’s worst-case scenario, you can live with it! However, given his age and peripheral stats, all signs point to an improved season for Votto in 2012. Votto is a pure hitter who continues to gain better command over strike zone, as his walk rate his increased steadily in each of the four last seasons. The average will always be there for Votto, just a notch below Cabrera. The biggest concern for fantasy owners was the drop in power, form 37 to 29 home runs. However, Votto hit the ball in the air more often in the second half of the season and hit 16 post all-star HR’s in 260 at-bats, compared to just 13 in his 339 at-bats before the break. Furthermore, his .222 ISO was well below his 2010 season (.276) and career average of .237. Therefore, expect him to bounce back to the 35 HR territory with elite average. The true wildcard for Votto is what he does on the basepaths. He stole just 8 bases in 2011, but if he puts a greater emphasis on running like he did in 2010, with 16 stolen bases, then he has the potential to provide extreme five-category value to your roster.
Honorable Mention:
Jacoby Ellsbury: His .230 ISO in 2011 (career .152) explains his surprise 30-home run season. Ellsbury’s peripheral indicate he will be more of a .300 20 HR 80 RBI 40 SB type players, making him a notch below Braun and Kemp.
***Today’s feature was prepared by our Fantasy Baseball Analyst, Peter Stein. We highly encourage you to leave your comments and feedback at the bottom of the page and share in the discussion with our readers. You can also follow Peter on Twitter (@peterWstein).***
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