Monthly Archives: August 2011
Adam Dunn: The Future of the White Sox Slugger
Wednesday August 31, 2011
MLB reports: Not every player can fit onto a particular MLB team. That is a baseball reality. In fact, there are very few, if any players that could produce the same statistics playing for any team. A player’s production is based on many factors, including home park, lineup, adaptability to particular cities and so on. When a team trades for a player or signs a free agent, the hope is that the new player will be able to meet or exceed previous production levels on a new team. Sometimes, the hope is that new environment will revitalize a stagnant player and breath new life into them. In the case of Adam Dunn, the Chicago White Sox signed him to a free agent contract last year. A large deal, 4 years for $56 million dollars. A fair deal in my estimation at the time. The White Sox by signing Dunn were hoping to land an established slugger to fit in the middle of their lineup. What they ended up with was quite different.
Take a look at Adam Dunn’s current production in comparison to his career numbers:
| BA | HR | RBI OBP | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regular Season | .163 | 11 | 40 .290 | |
| Career | .244 | 365 | 920 .374 |
To say that Adam Dunn has been anything but a disaster since his arrival in Chicago would be an understatement. Prior to 2011, Dunn’s worst season produced an .819 OPS. That was in 2003, his 2nd full season in the majors that was cut short by injuries. Turn the clock and Adam Dunn sits with a .578 OPS this season with no likelihood of redemption. While some pointed to Dunn playing in a new league for the first time and starting off slow, a turnaround was expected at some point this season. Dunn has actually regressed to the point that he is benched by manager Ozzie Guillen at a frequent rate. A sad state of affairs for one of the game’s previously most consistent sluggers.
For a two-year stretch, from 2003-2008, Adam Dunn was a 40 home runs and 100 walks guy. In his last two seasons, Dunn played in a less than friendly hitters park in Washington and still hit 38 home runs per season. Moving to the White Sox, expectations were that playing in a hitter’s park with a deep lineup would produce possible MVP type numbers for the burly slugger. So what happened? Why the sharp regression?
Part of the issue has been the move to the American League. The adjustment
has not worked for some hitters and we have seen NL hitters in the past that cannot play in the AL for whatever reason. Glenn Davis is one famous example that comes to mind, who moved from Houston to Baltimore and literally fell apart overnight. Dunn also is a full-time DH for the first time in his career. Some hitters never take as well to moving off the field and into a DH role, citing inactivity and removal from the full game experience as distractions from their hitting. Given though Dunn’s perceived weak fielding, at both first base and the outfield, a move to DH should have been a welcome change for him. Yet the move was another factor in his year-long slump.
The main culprit in my estimation is the fit, or lack of in Chicago. Perhaps it is the city, or the ballpark, teammates, media or his relationship with the manager. Whatever the reason, I ultimately believe that Adam Dunn and the White Sox simply do not mesh more than anything else. While a return to the field and/or the National League may help, first and foremost Dunn needs to get out of Chicago and start fresh.
I think of Chone Figgins and his move from the Angels to the Mariners. Despite staying in the same division even, Figgins was never able to meet expectations in Seattle and regressed throughout his time with the Mariners. Had he stayed in Anaheim, the chances are higher that Figgins would have continued playing his game and not transformed into a shell of his former self. Carl Crawford in Boston and Jayson Werthin Washington are players that also signed big-ticket deals and also stayed in their respective divisions, yet faltered in the wake of big contract expectations. But the difference with Crawford and Werth is that they have shown some glimpses of life this season, while Dunn has shown none. I fully expect Crawford at least to be able to make the necessary adjustments and rebound by next season. In Dunn’s case, I do not see that happening without a trade.
Nick Swisher is a situation that I will point to as an example. From the
moment Swisher was traded from the A’s to the White Sox, nothing went right. After suffering through the worst season of his career in Chicago, Swisher was traded to the Yankees for pennies on the dollar and blossomed in New York. The same will likely occur to Dunn. A move to the Yankees is a possibility, for a high-profile team that can afford to take on or part of most of Dunn’s salary. A trade for a bad contract is another one, with the Cubs for Zambrano or Giants for Zito as possibilities. Better yet, a move to the Angels could also be the answer. With Mike Trout ready to join an outfield of Peter Bourjos and Torii Hunter, the Angels may not have room for failed trade acquisition Vernon Wells. The White Sox could plug Wells into their outfield and Angels use Dunn to replace Bobby Abreu as DH. A long shot, but certainly a possibility.
No one can be sure if this season is an outlier or an indication of the beginning of the end for Adam Dunn. Based on his strong body of work until this year, I am willing to give him the benefit of the doubt that a rebound will occur. The White Sox might wait it out and give Dunn another shot next year. But then GM Kenny Williams has never been the patient type. After moving Swisher very quickly, I expect the White Sox to do the same with Dunn. This would be a classic buy-low situation for another MLB club. Expect many calls on Dunn in the offseason and a new team by 2012. Despite Dunn indications of having retirement thoughts due to his poor season, I cannot see him going down in this manner. Adam Dunn will be back. The only question is where.
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MLB Home Run Leaders: A Look at the Leaderboard
Monday August 29, 2011
MLB reports: We are coming to the last month of the MLB season. Readers are often requesting updates as to the hone run leaders and to handicap who will be the leading sluggers by year’s end. Taking a look at the current top 10 home run hitters in baseball, we find many familiar faces and some surprises. Here is our updated look at the mashers and bombers of baseball:
T-1: Curtis Granderson, New York Yankees (38)
Oh yes. The Grandyman can. The baseball world has gone Granderson crazy. From what appeared to be a hitter on the decline when he joined New York, Curtis Granderson has reinvented himself into an MVP candidate in 2011. Watching Curtis in Detroit, most expected him to be a 20 something home run hitter at most. Imagine that he has already hit 38 home runs with a month to go. It goes to show that baseball can be a very unpredictable sport and that New York still has the power to create miracles. I do not expect to see him on this board for the next five years, but for 2011 at least, Granderson has shot up to the top of the baseball mountain.
T-1: Jose Bautista, Toronto Blue Jays (38)
A regular on this list all season, Bautista has picked up from where he left off last season. While unable to maintain the Ruthian pace he was on in the first half of the season, Bautista has maintained his strong numbers throughout the year. With his 38 home runs, Bautista has already walked 107 times and has a 1.098 OPS. MVP voters will have much to consider at the ballots this year.
3rd: Mark Teixeira, New York Yankees (35)
There are some certainties in life. Death, taxes and Teixeira home runs. This man is as steady as they come and despite the lack of flash and glitter, he always seems to get the job done. No surprise to see him this high up on the list. Teixeira is simply money in the bank. You never have to worry about him.
T-4: Albert Pujols, St. Louis Cardinals (31)
For all the talk of doom and gloom, Albert Pujols still made the top five list. A “down” season for Sir Albert is a .895 OPS and 31 home runs. Numbers that most players would die for, but not anywhere close to his high standards. As an impending free agent, I fully expect Pujols to remain in St. Louis. But with his statistics not at his norm, the Cardinals might be able to sign him at a slightly more realistic price tag. $22 million per season rather than $25 million perhaps.
T-4: Matt Kemp, Los Angeles Dodgers (31)
Matt Kemp, or Baby Manny as he was called as a young prospect (the second coming of Manny Ramirez) has blossomed this year. Together with his 31 home runs, Kemp has already driven in 100, has a .964 OPS and a .320 AVG. Getting much press as a NL MVP candidate, Kemp is finally beginning to fulfill on the potential he had shown in his career leading up to this season. People thought for some time he was good, but I don’t think many expected such a strong campaign. A young player on the rise, Kemp might only be scratching the surface on many productive seasons to come.
T-4: Mark Reynolds, Baltimore Orioles (31)
Our generation’s Rob Deer keeps plugging away with the long balls. Reynolds has a respectable 31 home runs thus far, but have come with a whopping 157 strikeouts. More disturbing though his .226 AVG. An all-or-nothing slugger throughout his career, Reynolds is not showing any signs of improvement. The signs are showing for him to bounce around baseball, eventually ending up as a platoon player or even to Japan.
T-7: Mike Stanton, Florida Marlins (30)
One of the youngest and brightest stars in the game, Stanton has exploded in Florida in a big way. Heralded as the next Dave Winfield, Stanton has not disappointed in 2011. With 30 home runs to go along with a .889 OPS, Stanton is showing that the promise and hype is for real. Rumored to be requested by the White Sox as part of the Marlins hoping to land Ozzie Guillen as a manager, the Marlins are surely happy they held onto their young slugger. Together with Logan Morrison and Gaby Sanchez, expect Stanton to blossom into a top ten player in baseball very soon.
T-7: Lance Berkman, St. Louis Cardinals (30)
Once considered a top hitter in the game, Berkman had many question marks surrounding him after a down season last year. While many analysts thought the Cardinals were taking a risk by signing him, the Cardinals brass were confident in Berkman’s ability to rebound. Back in the NL Central and surrounded by Pujols and Matt Holliday in the lineup, Berkman has not disappointed. With 30 home runs, 77/75 BB/K, .289 AVG and .975 SLG, Berkman is getting MVP consideration as well as a lock as the NL Comeback Player of the Year. While Berkman cannot continue like this forever, expect at least 1-2 more solid seasons out of the seasoned veteran.
T-7: Dan Uggla, Atlanta Braves (30)
What a journey Uggla took this year. With a .232 AVG, one expect Uggla to be considered to be having an off-year. But with 30 home runs a 33-game hitting streak, Uggla has had his moments this year. Considered one of the best hitting second basemen in the game, power is a big part of Uggla’s repertoire. While the rest of the numbers are down, the long balls have remained constant. With his first year on a new team out of the way, expect a rebound from Uggla next season.
T-10: Prince Fielder, Milwaukee Brewers (29)
Considered to be one of the biggest prizes in the offseason free agent derby, Prince Fielder is having a fantastic campaign for the Brewers. Together with his 29 home runs, Fielder scored 81 runs, driven in 102, has 87/84 BB/K and hit .295, with a .955 OPS. The questions on people’s minds is whether he will stay in Milwaukee and if the biggest free agent contract this year will go to Fielder or Pujols. With Scott Boras as his agent, my money is on Fielder moving to greener pastures and commanding the top contract as a free agent. Together with Ryan Braun, Fielder gives the Brewers a strong team going into the playoffs in what is likely his last season in Milwaukee. Although number ten on this list, Fielder has shown the consistency this season to be considered one of the top hitters in the NL this season.
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Sunday MLB Insider Report: Our Views on the Latest Baseball News
Sunday August 28, 2011
MLB reports: Here is our weekly look at Major League Baseball and the latest news, together with analysis and opinions:
First our condolences to the Flanagan family, as the baseball world learned of the loss of ex-Orioles and Jays pitcher Mike Flanagan. Mike was a baseball lifer, having played the game and remained active as a coach, broadcaster and executive. The part of the ordeal that makes the story most tragic is how quickly speculation and then reports surfaced that his death was a suicide. In this age of social media, it is difficult to impossible to mask the facts behind a story. When rumors begin that are untrue, it is then often too difficult to bury them when they are later proven untrue. Once a story is put out into the world on the internet, it often remains there in people’s minds, if fact or faction. So when we think of Mike Flanagan, let’s remember him for the star pitcher that he was in the later 1970s and all the contributions he made to the game in all different capacities. Without having walked in his shoes, none of us could ever understand what was in his mind and the factors that led to his unfortunate passing. We cannot change the past. So when remembering Mike Flanagan, let’s remember him for his role in the game and not for the manner in which he passed away. I’m sure the Flanagan family would want it that way.
From a sad story to a literally bizarre tale, Lenny Dykstra is in the news once again. And for all the wrong reasons, again. The former World Series hero for the New York Mets and Philadelphia Phillies apparently was arrested for soliciting women on Craig’s List for fake jobs and then exposing himself to them. Looking to hire women for roles such as assistants and cleaning women, Nails according to reports has hit a new low. Once heralded as a business genius in business magazines, for his many business ventures including a string of car washes, Dykstra is now bankrupt and at the bottom of the barrel. I had a reader write in that questioned why ex-players like Dykstra and Flanagan pull stunts to get themselves into the news and cannot get away from the limelight. After my jaw dropped and blood boiled, I took some time to think about this comment. Overall, my response is that there is a difference between Flanagan, Dykstra and a publicity hound like Jose Canseco. Mike Flanagan passed in an unfortunate manner, but I think any reasonable person would not associate his death with a publicity stunt. Flanagan was a troubled soul but in no way looking for attention. Rather he was moving away from attention, likely looking for peace. To say that Flanagan was seeking publicity is extremely disrespectful to his legacy and family that was left behind. In the case of Dykstra, if the recent allegations are true, I also do not believe that he was seeking attention. To commit such crude and strange acts indicates that the man is disturbed and in need of professional assistance. Perhaps in some ways it is a cry for help, in other ways he may just have a giant ego and believes that he can do whatever he wants without repercussions. But it is extremely unlikely that Dykstra was hoping his actions would be publicized to the world and bring his name back to the spotlight. In a way it all comes back to Jose Canseco. In his truest form, Canseco only acts in a manner so that he will get his name into the public spotlight. From reality shows, boxing matches, independent baseball games, tell all books etc, Canseco’s singular purpose is to get attention. So while there are many ex-athletes out there in the world, let’s not all be so quick to group them into the Jose Canseco category. Some may have troubles, some may keep clean and we will never hear about them. But just because a story emerges about an ex-MLB player, let’s not be so quick to think that all of them are publicity hounds. Some want the exact opposite and enjoy their private time since their careers have finished.
Don’t look now Texas Rangers fans, but the Angels are hot on the heels of your team. The Rangers’ lead in the AL West is down to a mere 2.0 games with the Angels suddenly on fire. In their last 10 games respectively, the Rangers are 3-7 while the Angels are a mirror opposite 7-3. With the teams set to face-off today against each other, the gap could close even more. It seems that the Angels have caught fire at the right time, while the Rangers have cooled off. The Rangers are still scoring runs at a large clip, as they normally do in August in Arlington. But while the Rangers pitching is starting to fall short, the Angels pitching is on fire. Led by dual aces Jeff Weaver and Dan Haren, the Angels pitching looks unstoppable at this point. The Rangers will be tough to beat, with one of the best offenses in baseball led by Josh Hamilton, Ian Kinsler, Nelson Cruz, Michael Young and Mike Napoli. They also have a very deep end of the bullpen led by closer Neftali Feliz. But as the San Francisco Giants showed last year, strong pitching can beat good hitting to win at all. The Rangers have the bats and the Angels have the arms. While the Angels have some good bats, including Torii Hunter and Mike Trumbo, they are nowhere close to the level of the Rangers. It will be an AL West dogfight right to the end of the season. Baseball fans everywhere look forward to the September AL West showdown.
I read a really good article this week on the Sports Illustrated site. It was a look at the large contract signed by Jered Weaver and
the Angels and analyzing the rationale behind it. The article made many strong points that I wanted to touch upon. While many analysts have argued that Weaver left tens of millions of dollars on the table, such is not always the case. Looking at the worst case scenarios of such a deal, the article brought up the Carlos Zambrano deal in Chicago and Brandon Webb not signing a contract with the Diamondbacks. Zambrano signed at the time a “team friendly” deal which the Cubs are now working very hard to get out of. On the flip side, Brandon Webb did not end up signing a long-term deal in Arizona and ended up getting hurt and costing himself millions. I would throw in as well the failure of Nomar Garciaparra to sign a long-term deal with Boston that ended up costing him millions due to later injuries suffered and likely saving the team in the long run. In the case of starting pitchers, you never know when one will get injured and waiting until free agency could result in injuries and lost wages overall. So while some view Weaver as having lost millions, others could look at it as gained millions and take the sure road to a rich contract and not gambling on what the future could bring. The bottom line is that Weaver is comfortable where he is and being paid handsomely to play the game he loves at home. Both the team and player are happy with the deal and everyone wins as a result. If Weaver gets injured or falters, the player will look as the victor. If Weaver dominates over the next five years, the team will appear as coming ahead. Without looking into a crystal ball, we will say that this was a fair deal for a player not yet eligible for free agency and we will call it a tie. As Chone Figgins in Seattle, Adam Dunn in Chicago and Jeff Weaver also in Seattle can attest, the highest dollar isn’t necessarily the best one for a baseball career. Staying in a productive situation can often best further a baseball career and lead to the most years played and quite often, the most dollars overall earned as a result.
Finally, one of our favorite baseball topics: prospects. From the explosion in exposure of the MLB draft to the countless websites devoted to tracking baseball prospects, baseball fans are hot on the heels of future “stars’ like never before. In addition to the social media available reporting on prospects, teams have pressure to develop and call-up prospects at a quicker pace due to the dollar amounts involved. With top prospects earning bigger bonuses than seen back in the day, executives are feeling the heat to rushing these bonus babies to the majors. So the combination of big bucks and fan pressure is resulting in prospects climbing early to the majors at very young ages. So while Brett Lawrie may appear to be an early success for the Jays, teammate Travis Snider has failed to reach his potential yet and is doing the trek from the minors to the majors and back. Alex Gordon similarly came to the majors with a mountain of expectations and took many years to develop. Colby Rasmus burnt out in St. Louis for many reasons and found his way to Toronto. Matt LaPorta was traded by the Brewers to the Indians in the C.C. Sabathia trade and has failed to live up to Indians’ fans expectations thus far. But on the flip side we see a Paul Goldschmidt come up with the Diamondbacks with little fanfare around the majors and find success. We can look at hit and miss prospects all day, but my point is as follows. Baseball prospects take the longest to develop out of all the major sports. While the NBA and NFL do not have a minor league system per say and the NHL has one minor league level, Major League Baseball has several minor league stops. It is rare to impossible for a baseball prospect to make it to the show without spending time in the minors. While most baseball prospects realistically need 2-4 years in the minors to develop their game, many top prospects are being rushed like never before. I do not see this as a positive in the game and in many cases a hinderance to the development of the players. But with the baseball media machine at full blast and money being thrown at top prospects at record high levels, I cannot see the rushing of top prospects stopping any time soon. But I think we all need to step away for a moment and really think about what is best for these players careers. For every Brett Lawrie, there will be hundreds of failed prospects that will take time to develop. Alex Gordon this year is one of the few lucky ones, that has been able to turn around his career. But it took a position change and many failed attempts to get to this point. Analyzing and watching prospects is one of my guilty habits, I will admit it. I just hope that major league teams will give their top prospects the tools and ability to succeed, rather than set them up for failure. It is a fine line and one that many teams are still learning to walk on.
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Edgar Martinez Should Be Inducted Into Cooperstown: Future Mariners Hall of Famer
Friday August 26, 2011
Sam Evans (Intern Candidate- MLB reports): When you think of the most consistent hitters during the 1990’s, most people think of Barry Bonds and Mark McGwire. One name that always gets overlooked is Edgar Martinez. He had a .312 career batting average, reached base more than 40% of the time, has never has been linked to steroids, and he arguably saved baseball in Seattle for years to come.
Some of the arguments against Edgar being in the Hall of Fame are that he hardly played in the field, was not a superstar, never won a world series, and that his numbers just aren’t good enough. As a Mariners fan, I definitely have bias but I’ll try to explain why I think Edgar should legitimately be in the Hall of Fame. First of all, if his numbers aren’t good enough, why was Andre Dawson’s statistics enough for him to be voted into the hall of fame? Let’s compare the two hitters:
Edgar (Career) .312/.418/.515. Wins Above Replacement (courtesy of fangraphs.com): 69.9
Andre Dawson: .279/.323/.482 Wins Above Replacement: 62.3
What’s the difference between these two? The Hawk is in the Hall of Fame, which Dawson deserved. Other Hall-of-Famers with a lower WAR than Edgar are Harmon Killebrew, Dennis Eckersley, and Jackie Robinson. There are over 230 former MLB players in the Hall of Fame. I think it’s amazing that Edgar is not one of them.
After Edgar missed the 1994 season due to injury, he became the Mariners full-time designated hitter. He would go on to be the Mariners starting DH for the next ten years. When asked how that would affect his Hall of Fame chances, Edgar replied, “There are a lot of different opinions about it. What I think is that the DH makes a daily contribution to the team, just like any position player who plays every day.” In 1973, major league baseball instituted the Designated Hitter as a real position. So why should this prevent a primary DH from ever reaching Cooperstown?
In his first season as a DH, Martinez won his second American League batting title, hitting .356 with an OBP of .479 and a slugging percentage of .628. Hall of famers Hank Aaron and Willie Mays never had a season with an OBP over .425. It is my estimation that Martinez wasn’t a superstar across the baseball scene because of where he played. If he played in New York, chances are it wouldn’t be this hard for him to get into Cooperstown. The low light of Edgar’s career is definitely though that he never won a World Series championship. Superstars that win the big one tend to be favored in the eyes of Cooperstown voters.
During the 1995 season the city of Seattle fell in love with the Mariners. After having just two winning seasons in their first sixteen years, Edgar and Ken Griffey Jr. led the Mariners to a 79-66 record. In the 1995 ALDS series between the Mariners and the Yankees, Edgar reached base 2/3 of the time and had two game winning hits. On October, 8, 1995, with the series tied 2-2, the Mariners battled back to score two runs and send the game into extra innings. After the eighth inning, the crowd started chanting “Randy! Randy! Randy!” Finally Lou Piniella gave in and Randy Johnson walked out to the mound to Welcome to the Jungle booming through the Kingdome’s outdated speakers. However in the top of the eleventh tragedy struck. A walk, bunt, and single put the Yankees in the lead, and with their stud pitcher Jack McDowell coming in to pitch the M’s chances looked pretty slim. With runners on first and third, Edgar ended up hitting a double down the left field line to win the series for the M’s. The Mariners were eliminated in the ALCS at the end by the Indians, but the effect of Edgar’s hit had MLB fans everywhere truly excited about Mariners baseball for the first time ever.
The thing is that he wasn’t just successful in the playoffs; Martinez won Seattle one of the more beautiful MLB ballparks, Safeco Field. Two months earlier, 50.1% of King county voters voted NO on a $410 million proposal for a new stadium, to keep the Mariners in Seattle. The state legislature later approved a new stadium for the Mariners, mainly due to public pressure. This led people to think what would have happened if it weren’t for Edgar’s clutch hit.
Edgar was known for his great batting eye, which resulted from a series of drills before every game he utilized to improve it. He also gave back to the community by founding the Martinez foundation, which helps give minorities’ access to proper education. When Edgar retired in 2004, Paul Molitor said, “He was one of the most feared right-handed hitters for a long time in this league. The amount of respect he has from peers speaks to the value of the offensive player he was.”
In 2010, Edgar’s first year eligible for the hall, he received 36.2% of the BBWAA votes. Martinez missed the 75% cutoff. This year he received 32.9 % of the vote. Who knows if Edgar will ever be in the Hall of Fame, this year definitely wasn’t encouraging. But in Bert Blyleven’s (elected in 2011, after 14 years of eligibility) second year on the ballot, he received only 14.1% of votes. So there is reason for optimism. Whether Edgar ever makes it to Cooperstown or not, he will always be a hero to Mariners fans and one of the best pure hitters in major league history.
***Today’s feature was prepared by one of our intern candidates, Sam Evans. We highly encourage you to leave your comments and feedback at the bottom of the page and share in the discussion with our readers. You can also follow Sam on Twitter.***
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Top 10 Closers: MLB Saves Leaders
Thursday August 25, 2011
Rob Bland (Intern- MLB reports): Closers are a topic a lot of people ask about, but I never really got around to writing about. Mainly because, in my opinion, it is a position that is completely overrated. While it certainly helps to have a guy that can go in and slam the door and collect saves for over a decade a la Mariano Rivera, it isn’t necessary to have a “closer” to be a contending team. One need only to look at the top 20 leaders in saves in baseball to notice that the Texas Rangers’ closer Neftali Feliz sits 19th with 25 saves, and Philadelphia Phillies’ Ryan Madson is 20th with 23 saves. It also doesn’t guarantee success, as Heath Bell, Drew Storen, Leo Nunez, Joel Hanrahan are all in the top 10 in saves, while their teams are not in playoff contention.
Top 10 Saves Leaders in MLB as of today:
| Pitcher | Team | Saves | K/9 | BB/9 | ERA | FIP | WAR |
| Craig Kimbrel | Atlanta Braves | 40 | 14.56 | 3.53 | 1.70 | 1.20 | 3.1 |
| John Axford | Milwaukee Brewers | 37 | 10.86 | 3.32 | 2.26 | 2.36 | 1.7 |
| Jose Valverde | Detroit Tigers | 37 | 8.31 | 4.79 | 2.72 | 4.08 | 0.2 |
| Brian Wilson | San Francisco Giants | 35 | 8.72 | 5.20 | 3.19 | 3.40 | 0.7 |
| Heath Bell | San Diego Padres | 35 | 6.79 | 3.23 | 2.55 | 3.07 | 0.7 |
| Drew Storen | Washington Nationals | 34 | 8.03 | 2.19 | 2.77 | 3.48 | 0.6 |
| Mariano Rivera | New York Yankees | 33 | 8.45 | 0.92 | 2.20 | 2.23 | 1.8 |
| Leo Nunez | Florida Marlins | 33 | 8.31 | 2.88 | 4.63 | 4.02 | 0.1 |
| Joel Hanrahan | Pittsburgh Pirates | 32 | 7.85 | 2.04 | 1.73 | 2.17 | 1.8 |
| JJ Putz | Arizona Diamondbacks | 32 | 8.28 | 2.17 | 2.76 | 3.10 | 1.0 |
I look at this list and a few things come to mind:
1) Craig Kimbrel is absolutely filthy.
2) Mariano Rivera is still one of the very best.
3) Closers are more overrated than I originally expected.
4) A lot of saves does not equal success.
5) Craig Kimbrel. Wow.
Craig Kimbrel is having the best year ever for a rookie closer. It isn’t even September and he has 40 saves. Not only that, but he is striking out more than 14 batters per 9 innings. His FIP is a ridiculous 1.20, and his WAR is at 3.1, which is 1.3 higher than any other closer in the Major Leagues. His ground ball rate is 43.7% and has only given up 1 home run in 63 2/3 innings. If the Braves end up winning the Wild Card and have a lead late in games, the shutdown duo of Johnny Venters and Kimbrel should be able to save the game for the Braves in most instances.
John Axford has had a strange way to becoming one of the premier closers in all of baseball. It took him many years to get there, but under the tutelage of Trevor Hoffman, the career saves leader, whom Axford took his job from, he has flourished. In 2010, Axford had 24 saves after taking over for Hoffman mid-season, and this year’s 37 so far are tied for 2nd in the big leagues. Axford gets over 50% ground balls, and keeps the ball in the yard, two main factors for his success.
Jose Valverde is one of the closers whom I find to be overrated. Part of his success can be attributed to a lucky .250 BABIP. He also
walks close to 5 batters per 9 innings, which is extremely high, especially when he does not strike out a very high number of batters. Valverde may appear to be very good with 37 saves, but his 0.2 WAR suggests that he is basically a replacement level pitcher. Surely he is not worth the $7M he is being paid.
Brian Wilson is loved by many in the game. He is funny, has a strange personality, (which seems to be perfectly suited for the bullpen) and he has an outrageous beard. Since 2008, he has accumulated 162 saves, so he is very valuable at the back-end of the Giants’ bullpen. He keeps the ball on the ground, with a career 50% ground ball rate, but he walks a ton of batters (5.20/9IP). He gets a lot of save opportunities because the starting rotation is very good, and his team doesn’t score many runs, so there are a lot of close games.
Heath Bell has put up some ridiculous numbers over the last few years, but these numbers come with half of his games played in the cavernous PETCO Park. While his last two seasons had his K rate over 10, he sits at 6.79 for this season. His ground ball rate is also down 5% to 43. Although his ERA is a good 2.55, his xFIP is 3.89, and like Wilson, gets saves because of an anaemic offense that results in his team often being in close games.
Drew Storen is another of the Washington Nationals’ young phenoms. He moved up the ranks, throwing only 53 2/3 innings in the minor leagues before making his debut in 2010. He has been a tad lucky as his BABIP is .241, but he gets a lot of ground balls, so the hits will even out. He also gives up a higher than average home run per fly ball rate at 11.1%. Storen doesn’t walk many, and as he matures, should probably strike out a higher number. When Washington starts winning more games, he will have even more opportunities for saves.
Mariano Rivera is up to his usual tricks. Even at 41 years old, he is carving up hitters with his signature cut fastball. Rivera has a ridiculous 9:1 K:BB ratio, as well as getting ground balls 47% of the time. His WAR sits at 1.8, tied for second best for closers. The only question is when will this guy ever slow down?
Leo Nunez of the Florida Marlins may be the most overrated closer in baseball. Nunez doesn’t get a lot of ground balls, nor does he strike out a ton, as he gives up a ton of fly balls (49%) and home runs (8 in 56 IP). Nunez’s ERA of 4.63 actually looks worse than his 4.02 FIP, so he has been a little unlucky, but still not very good.
Joel Hanrahan has found a home at the back-end up the Pirates’ bullpen, and is thriving there. While his K rate has dropped to 7.85/9 IP from almost 13 last year, he has walked less batters. Hanrahan has been able to induce ground balls on over half of his plate appearances, and only given up 1 home run in 57 1/3 innings. His stellar numbers have allowed him to tie Rivera for 2nd in closer’s WAR this year.
JJ Putz’s resurgence as a closer this year comes as no surprise to many. Last year as a setup man for Bobby Jenks with the Chicago White Sox, Putz’s K rate was just below 11/9IP, while he walked only 2.5 per 9 innings. He hasn’t put up the same strikeout numbers this year, but he is walking less batters. Putz’s WAR of 1.0 puts him towards the top of the list of closers.
Out of the top 30 relievers in WAR, only 9 are full-time closers. Francisco Rodriguez is among those pitchers, but since he does not close games since traded to the Milwaukee Brewers, he was not counted. Although this doesn’t mean that just ANYONE can close games and earn saves, it does show that many pitchers who have not been given the opportunity probably could get the job done.
***Today’s feature was prepared by our Intern, Rob Bland. We highly encourage you to leave your comments and feedback at the bottom of the page and share in the discussion with our readers. You can also follow Rob on Twitter.***
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RIP Mike Flanagan: Former MLB Pitcher with Orioles and Jays Passes Away
Wednesday August 24, 2011
MLB reports: We are sad to report that Mike Flanagan, ex-MLB pitcher was found dead in Baltimore County today. Flanagan was 59 years of age. While the news is still trickling in, it is currently being reported that Flanagan’s body was found on a trail near his home. The body has just been recently identified as being that of Mike Flanagan. After some distresses relating to finances, Flanagan apparently took his own life. A very spirited baseball man, Flanagan was a beloved figure in the sport and his death has sent shock waves through the baseball community. Mike Flanagan devoted his life to baseball and we are all very saddened by the new of his passing.
Mike Flanagan was originally a 7th round draft pick of the Baltimore Orioles in 1973. Flanagan spent 18 productive seasons in baseball, with 15 coming in Baltimore. In addition to pitching for the Orioles, Flanagan spent part of 4 years with the Blue Jays. Although he pitched only a short time in Toronto, Flanagan’s name is still tossed around as one of the all-time favorite Jays pitchers. Such is the effect this man had on pitching. But Flanagan will forever be linked with the Baltimore Orioles, the club that he came up with and ultimately retired from. Here is a look at the career numbers of Mike Flanagan:
| Year | Tm | W | L | ERA | IP | BB | SO | WHIP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1975 | BAL | 0 | 1 | 2.79 | 9.2 | 6 | 7 | 1.552 |
| 1976 | BAL | 3 | 5 | 4.13 | 85.0 | 33 | 56 | 1.365 |
| 1977 | BAL | 15 | 10 | 3.64 | 235.0 | 70 | 149 | 1.298 |
| 1978 | BAL | 19 | 15 | 4.03 | 281.1 | 87 | 167 | 1.273 |
| 1979 | BAL | 23 | 9 | 3.08 | 265.2 | 70 | 190 | 1.186 |
| 1980 | BAL | 16 | 13 | 4.12 | 251.1 | 71 | 128 | 1.389 |
| 1981 | BAL | 9 | 6 | 4.19 | 116.0 | 37 | 72 | 1.250 |
| 1982 | BAL | 15 | 11 | 3.97 | 236.0 | 76 | 103 | 1.309 |
| 1983 | BAL | 12 | 4 | 3.30 | 125.1 | 31 | 50 | 1.324 |
| 1984 | BAL | 13 | 13 | 3.53 | 226.2 | 81 | 115 | 1.297 |
| 1985 | BAL | 4 | 5 | 5.13 | 86.0 | 28 | 42 | 1.500 |
| 1986 | BAL | 7 | 11 | 4.24 | 172.0 | 66 | 96 | 1.424 |
| 1987 | TOT | 6 | 8 | 4.06 | 144.0 | 51 | 93 | 1.382 |
| 1987 | BAL | 3 | 6 | 4.94 | 94.2 | 36 | 50 | 1.458 |
| 1987 | TOR | 3 | 2 | 2.37 | 49.1 | 15 | 43 | 1.236 |
| 1988 | TOR | 13 | 13 | 4.18 | 211.0 | 80 | 99 | 1.422 |
| 1989 | TOR | 8 | 10 | 3.93 | 171.2 | 47 | 47 | 1.357 |
| 1990 | TOR | 2 | 2 | 5.31 | 20.1 | 8 | 5 | 1.770 |
| 1991 | BAL | 2 | 7 | 2.38 | 98.1 | 25 | 55 | 1.108 |
| 1992 | BAL | 0 | 0 | 8.05 | 34.2 | 23 | 17 | 2.106 |
| 18 Seasons | 167 | 143 | 3.90 | 2770.0 | 890 | 1491 | 1.334 | |
| 162 Game Avg. | 12 | 10 | 3.90 | 203 | 65 | 109 | 1.334 | |
| W | L | ERA | IP | BB | SO | WHIP | ||
| BAL (15 yrs) | 141 | 116 | 3.89 | 2317.2 | 740 | 1297 | 1.323 | |
| TOR (4 yrs) | 26 | 27 | 3.94 | 452.1 | 150 | 194 | 1.393 | |
Flanagan made his major league debut in 1975. He started to come into his own in 1978, with a 19 win season and 4.03 ERA, to go along with his only all-star game appearance. The real breakthrough came in 1979, when Flanagan won 23 games, with a 3.08 ERA and a whopping 190 strikeouts. Flanagan that year won the AL Cy Young award, in addition to finishing 6th in the AL MVP voting. Flanagan played in the World Series in 1979 with the Orioles, losing to the Pirates. The Orioles and Flanagan were back though in 1983, beating the Phillies to win the World Series. In 1987, Mike Flanagan was traded to the Jays for hurlers Oswaldo Pereza and Jose Mesa. Flanagan played in the ALCS with the Jays in 1989, his final MLB playoff appearance. In 1991, Flanagan re-signed with the Orioles as a free agent and he continued with the Orioles until retiring in 1992. Mike Flanagan and the Baltimore Orioles will forever be linked in baseball history. Flanagan spent the majority of his career in Baltimore, the sight of his greatest baseball triumphs.
Following his retirement from the game, Flanagan continued in Baltimore in many capacities. In addition to serving in the broadcast booth, Flanagan served as the Orioles pitching coach, as well as Vice-President/Co-GM (unofficially with Jim Duquette). The man gave his heart and soul to the city of Baltimore and was a beloved sports figure in the eyes of the Orioles fans. It is a tragedy when the MLB family loses one of its members and today we have lost a great one in Mike Flanagan. We will remember Mike for his time in the game, as a player, broadcaster, coach and executive. I had the pleasure of watching Mike pitch on many occasions. He was a gamer. Flanagan always gave it his all and was a steady presence on every pitching staff that he played with. We thank Mike Flanagan for the memories and remember him fondly on this very sad day.
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Diamondbacks and Blue Jays Swap Second Basemen: Hill and McDonald for Johnson
Tuesday August 23, 2011
Rob Bland (Intern- MLB reports): The Arizona Diamondbacks are in the middle of a pennant race in the National League West, and yet made a change with their second baseman, Kelly Johnson. Statistics show that Johnson had been underperforming this year, and GM Kevin Towers said he wanted better defense and infield depth. With that in mind, Towers got a hold of Toronto Blue Jays’ GM Alex Anthopoulos to inquire on super utility infielder John McDonald. McDonald can play 2B, SS, and 3B at an above average level, although he doesn’t do much with the bat. With regular shortstop Stephen Drew lost for the season due to injury, the D’Backs have been forced to start Willie Bloomquist the majority of the games in his absence. That led to talks involving Toronto’s longest tenured player, second baseman Aaron Hill. The end result was Arizona acquiring Aaron Hill and John McDonald, with Kelly Johnson going to Toronto.
Aaron Hill had a terrific start to his career, which so far has peaked in 2009 when he hit .286 with 36 home runs and 108 RBI. He was
an All-Star and a Silver Slugger winner that year. He plays good defense and is a well-liked guy in the clubhouse. His contract situation is an iffy one, in that he has 2 option years left worth $8M each. By the end of 2009, it would have been a lock that those options would have been picked up, however, 2010 and 2011 have not been so kind to Hill. Last year he hit .205 with a walk rate of only 7.1%. He at least was able to club 26 home runs, which are numbers he has not been able to replicate this year. Hill in 2011 is walking in 5.4% of his plate appearances, and has only 6 home runs to go along with his paltry .225 average.
McDonald is arguably the most beloved player in Toronto, after Jose Bautista. He routinely gets standing ovations, and this writer can proudly say one of his favourite moments in MLB history was watching McDonald hit a home run in his first at bat after missing a few games. The significance was that his father had just passed away, and McDonald promised to hit a home run for him. So on Father’s Day of 2010, McDonald crushed a home run over the left field wall. The teary-eyed McDonald crossed the plate and was embraced by every member of the Blue Jays. McDonald is a phenomenal defender, often used as a pinch runner in key situations, but doesn’t hit much. In his 13 seasons, he has only 21 home runs, with 12 of them coming in his last 3 seasons. His value comes as a player that will give everything for his team, playing every position imaginable and making highlight reel plays.
Johnson is only a season removed from a .284/.370/.496 slash line, and although scouts often say his defense is sub par, th
e advanced metrics tell a different story. His UZR was 7.1 last year, and 3.9 this year, where 0 is average. Johnson’s production, like Hill, has fallen off the table. He is still hitting home runs; 18 this year compared to 26 last year. He takes walks, just under 11% for his career. But his main problem has been the strikeouts. This year has been worse than usual, as he has struck out in over 27% of his plate appearances. Johnson’s line drive rate is just a tick below his career numbers, so his batting average on balls in play (BABIP) being 50 points lower than his career average is probably a good indicator of why his numbers are so low.
All three players are free agents at season’s end. McDonald and Hill both said during their press conference today that they are very open to returning to Toronto in 2012. Until then, the Diamondbacks will look to add to their 1.5 game lead over the San Francisco Giants with this move. Should they be propelled to the playoffs, it is likely that an infield of Hill, McDonald, Lyle Overbay, and Ryan Roberts (all former Blue Jays) could face off against another former Jay in Roy Halladay and the Philadelphia Phillies in the National League Division Series.
This deal seems strange from a Diamondbacks perspective, as Hill is a downgrade from Johnson, even with the poor season
Johnson has been having in 2011. The amount of upside the Dbacks get from having McDonald over Bloomquist at shortstop is completely negated by this downgrade. However, the Dbacks get two great clubhouse characters, who will surely help the club defensively and in teaching the younger players. For the Blue Jays, this trade makes complete sense. Johnson is currently set to be a Type B free agent at the end of the year, and with a hot streak, could become a Type A. As a Type B, he would net the team a supplemental draft pick if he signs a major league deal with another team. But if Johnson reaches Type A status this offseason, he will also net a first round pick on top of the supplemental pick. The Jays can use this time to better evaluate Johnson, and by showing him what the organization has to offer, Johnson may sign with the team at the end of the year.
Aaron Hill and Kelly Johnson were two players that have been coveted by each team for the last couple of years, but no deal could have been struck. However, with both players struggling so badly this year, both players were in need of a change of scenery. A fresh start could do wonders for Hill as he could get back into the groove he was in before the 2010 season, while Johnson could return to his 2010 form.
So at the very worst, the Jays get an extra draft pick as part of this trade, and in many people’s opinions, they will also get McDonald back in 2012 to be their utility infielder. For the Dbacks, Hill’s production could seriously limit their offense and push them out of a playoff spot. Both teams are facing risks, but I believe Toronto’s level of risk was much lower, as they are not in a pennant race. The upside potential of this trade for the Jays makes them the winner in my books.
***Today’s feature was prepared by our Intern, Rob Bland. We highly encourage you to leave your comments and feedback at the bottom of the page and share in the discussion with our readers. You can also follow Rob on Twitter.***
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The Sunday MLB Inside Reports
MLB reports: Greetings readers from Cooperstown, New York. I am on the road and writing today’s report on my BlackBerry. As I sit in my hotel and prepare to visit the Cooperstown baseball museum tomorrow, here are today’s reports:
Watching the Cubs and Cardinals playing the Sunday night game of the week, I had some thoughts. Firstly, ESPN loves Starlin Castro. He was on the tv set about 60% of the game and had his name mentioned about 3,000 times. He is good, but still young and raw. The hype needs to be toned down. Also nice home run showings by Jon Jay and Yadier Molina with a pair. But top prize goes to Albert Pujols for the bomb he hit off Lopez. That shot will put Pujols back on the map as he proves health and performance on road to new contract in the offseason. That home run may have earned another $20 million on his new contract.
The Tigers are looking good after this weekend. They currently sit in 1st place in the Central. The Indians are 4 GB, with the White Sox 5 GB. Watch out for the Sox as they are still in it. In my opinion, there is not a better catcher right now in baseball than Alex Avila. With power and patience at the plate, to go along with strong D, Avila is doing it all for the Tigers. Credit goes to Victor Martinez, a positive mentor to Avila and a great free agent acquisition for Detroit. On the flip side, Ubaldo Jimenez got rocked Sunday. The Indians starter does not look 100% on the mound and may have an undisclosed ailment.
The Braves bullpen combination of Venters and Kimbrel is downright scary for opponents. To go along with starters Tim Hudson and Jair Jurrjens, the Braves should take the NL Wild Card come October. The National League is officially on notice.
It looks like the Brewers are running away with the NL Central. A very deep team top to bottom, the Brewers were built for the 2011 playoffs. The Reds have been a big disappointment this year and the Cardinals simply do not have the pitching to match up with the Brewers.
Jose Bautista hit his major league leading 36th home run of the year. Bautista has done it all this year, showing power and patience at the plate with great D at 3B and the outfield. Perhaps the most valuable player to his team, expect Bautista to get many votes for AL MVP this year.
I enjoyed reading the Bill James Abstract today on the drive up to Cooperstown. Given James’ important contributions to the game, consideration should be given to putting James in the Hall of Fame one day. His contributions have been that important considering how much he has changed the game through statistical identification and analysis.
Baseball needs to stop digging in its heels as many decisions need to be made soon. Upcoming baseball discussions centre on realignment, expansion, adding wild card teams HGH testing, rookie salary caps and finding a replacement for Bud Selig. Expect much more information to come out as the current MLB CBA expires in December.
As a side note, it was a glorious drive up to Cooperstown this afternoon. When you enter the town, it really feels like being in small town USA. Many houses have American flags proudly displayed up front and there is grass, trees and baseball signs everywhere. For a baseball fan, there is no better place on earth than Cooperstown. If you haven’t visited, I highly recommend it.
Have a great night everyone and I wish everybody a great week. As the MLB pennant race heats up, be sure to support your favorite team. September is around the corner and playoff baseball will be here soon.
Tyler Beede Chooses Vanderbilt over the Blue Jays
Saturday August 20, 2011
Before the 2011 MLB Draft, Auburn, Massachusetts native Tyler Beede signed a National Letter of Intent to attend Vanderbilt University. In the months leading up to the draft, Beede made it known to MLB scouts and cross-checkers that he was going to attend Vanderbilt. He felt as though the college experience and the education he would receive would be the best thing for him.
Vanderbilt is also a member institution of the Southeastern Conference (SEC). The SEC is arguably the best conference in the NCAA for baseball as well as other sports. There has been a long line of first round draft choices that have been Commodores. In the last seven years, Vanderbilt has had 48 players drafted, while 6 of those have been in the first round. Jeremy Sowers (6th in 2004), David Price (1st in 2007), Casey Weathers (9th in 2007), and Mike Minor (7th in 2009) are the pitchers taken in the first rounds of their drafts for the Commodores. Vanderbilt also took part in their first NCAA College World Series in 2011, and hope to build upon that success. Vanderbilt head coach Tim Corbin has said that Beede has been in Vanderbilt baseball camps since his freshman year of high school, so it is safe to say that Tyler is extremely comfortable with the staff and surroundings.
When a player with as much talent as Beede chooses a successful program, it is often to create leverage in negotiating with a drafting team. There have been many players who sign with schools such as University of Texas, Louisiana State University, or University of California simply to earn a larger signing bonus in professional baseball. The stronger the player’s commitment to school, the more leverage he has to get the MLB team to offer top dollars. Since MLB teams generally don’t like to “waste” their pick and not sign a guy, they will often have to break the bank to make him sign on the dotted line.
When a player tells a scout that he wants X amount of dollars, it often scares teams away from that player, dropping him to later rounds, or out of the draft
altogether. Tyler was drafted in the 1st round (21st overall) of the 2011 MLB Draft by the Toronto Blue Jays, although he could have gone sooner if not for his demands. The Blue Jays and GM Alex Anthopoulos were known to be planning an aggressive approach to this year’s draft, and even though Beede stated he wanted the big bucks, the Jays were confident that they could sign him. So confident that many people in baseball were calling for investigations that the Blue Jays had worked out a pre-draft deal with Beede for around $2M.
__________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
For those of you who don’t know me, my name is Rob Bland, and like Beede, was a tall right-handed pitcher in high school. I may not have thrown as hard as Beede but I routinely flashed 89-91 mph on scouts’ radar guns. Scouts were behind the backstop for each one of my games from my junior year in high school on. I played for a prestigious program in Team Ontario and graduated to the Canadian Junior National Team and had a ton of great exposure. Before the 2002 MLB draft, I had signed with the University of Kentucky, also in the SEC, and told scouts I was going to school unless a lot of money was put in front of me. I was ranked in Baseball America’s top 150 draft prospects list, and I was told by some teams I could go as high as the 7th to 10th rounds. I went back and forth between school and professional baseball, but I felt I wasn’t ready to be a pro. My parents, like Beede’s, thought that I was mature enough to make this life-altering decision on my own. Education has always been very important to my family, and ultimately I decided that unless I was blown away by an offer, I would go to school. The fact that Beede has been on record of saying that he would have signed for $3.5M leads me to believe that he felt the same way. He had a number in mind, and unless it was reached, he would be perfectly content in attending college. I ended up requesting 3rd round money as a leverage tool (around $250,000 at the time). I figured that I would improve so much over the next three years that I would easily be a 3rd round selection at worst in 2005. Teams considered me “unsignable” and I was not selected at all. I went to the University of Kentucky where I struggled with adjusting to college life and could not stay healthy, spending most of my time in the trainer’s room, until finally requiring Tommy John surgery.
I could look back and say I should not have declared lofty demands and just taken what could have been given to me, but the reality is that I genuinely wanted to go to college. Beede
has also been adamant that he wants to enjoy the college experience and step into a role where he can make a big difference. I also thought at the time that when I worked hard, I could improve and be drafted higher in the future. At the time I thought it was the right choice, but now I look back and wonder how I could have done in professional baseball.
I am not trying to compare myself with Beede, as he is obviously a much bigger talent, but there are some parallels. If he gets injured, or if he struggles and cannot figure college hitters and metal bats out, he could be losing out on a lot of money and a career in professional baseball.
I have no doubt that Beede’s talent will shine in the SEC, and he will again be drafted in 2014. However, I seriously doubt it will be as high of a selection, or that he will be offered the same $2.5M that the Blue Jays offered this year. With the next Collective Bargaining Agreement sure to stop the huge spending on the draft, players will not have the same bargaining power.
I have heard many Toronto Blue Jays fans saying that Beede was foolish for turning down the money, or that they hope that he does not succeed and regrets his decision. Some have said that he is immature, or that he doesn’t deserve to play professional baseball. “Tyler Beede is greedy” and “Beede is a jerk” has been posted on Twitter . All of these comments are completely unfair because he is an 18-year-old kid and decisions like these are not easy to make. In my opinion, he made a very mature decision that 99.9% of us find easy to scoff at. Who can turn down $2.5M to do something they love to do? What people don’t realize is that he has a huge love for Vanderbilt and their program. He feels more COMFORTABLE at Vandy than he does in the Toronto Blue Jays organization right now. For a ballplayer, comfort breeds confidence, and Beede I am sure is brimming with confidence right now.
Is this a decision that Beede may regret in 10 years? Maybe. Is he dumb? Absolutely not. Beede will look to become the second Vanderbilt Commodore to be selected first overall in a future MLB Draft. If that becomes the case, Beede will make a lot more money at that time than he was offered by the Blue Jays in 2011 and have a solid university education behind him.
***Today’s feature was prepared by our Intern, Rob Bland. We highly encourage you to leave your comments and feedback at the bottom of the page and share in the discussion with our readers. You can also follow Rob on Twitter.***
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Mike Jacobs: Rockies Slugger Receives 50 Game HGH Suspension
Friday August 19, 2011
MLB reports: Major League Baseball commenced human growth hormone (“HGH”) testing in the minor leagues in the summer of 2010. It was only a matter of time before players began to get caught under the new system. Blood testing for HGH in the minors was the first step in bringing similar tests to the major leagues one day. With HGH testing now in place as part of the NFL’s new collective bargaining agreement, MLB cannot be far behind. With baseball’s agreement with the union set to expire in December of this year, expect HGH testing to be a big topic on the bargaining table. The first player to be caught in the minors using HGH and receiving a 50 game suspension is Colorado Rockies slugger, Mike Jacobs. With the first HGH culprit found, pressure will be intense on baseball to bring similar testing all the way to the major leagues.
Mike Jacobs will forever be known as the first North American athlete to test positive for HGH. Although HGH suspensions have occurred internationally, Jacobs is the first athlete in a professional North American athlete to be tested and fail a HGH test. Things should have gone differently for Jacobs in his career. Originally a 38th round pick for the Mets in the 1999 draft, Jacobs rose from baseball obscurity to star with the Marlins from 2006-2008. Here is a look at Jacobs’ major league stats:
| Year 5 | Tm | R | HR | RBI | SO | BA | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2005 | NYM | 19 | 11 | 23 | 22 | .310 | .375 | .710 |
| 2006 | FLA | 54 | 20 | 77 | 105 | .262 | .325 | .473 |
| 2007 | FLA | 57 | 17 | 54 | 101 | .265 | .317 | .458 |
| 2008 | FLA | 67 | 32 | 93 | 119 | .247 | .299 | .514 |
| 2009 | KCR | 46 | 19 | 61 | 132 | .228 | .297 | .401 |
| 2010 | NYM | 1 | 1 | 2 | 7 | .208 | .296 | .375 |
| 6 Seasons | 244 | 100 | 310 | 486 | .253 | .313 | .475 | |
| 162 Game Avg. | 71 | 29 | 90 | 142 | .253 | .313 | .475 | |
| FLA (3 yrs) | 178 | 69 | 224 | 325 | .258 | .314 | .483 | |
| NYM (2 yrs) | 20 | 12 | 25 | 29 | .290 | .360 | .645 | |
| KCR (1 yr) | 46 | 19 | 61 | 132 | .228 | .297 | .401 | |
| NL (5 yrs) | 198 | 81 | 249 | 354 | .261 | .317 | .496 | |
| AL (1 yr) | 46 | 19 | 61 | 132 | .228 | .297 | .401 | |
2008 represented the best season of Jacobs’ career. He hit 32 home runs, to go
along with 93 RBIs for the Marlins. But despite the strong power numbers, critics pointed to his .247 AVG and weak .299 OBP that year and labelled him a one-dimensional player. The Marlins agreed and traded Jacobs in October 2008 for current closer Leo Nunez. Jacobs originally joined the Marlins in November 2005 as a package of players for superstar Carlos Delgaldo. Big expectations were placed on Jacobs to replace Delgaldo ever since he joined the Marlins. While Jacobs had the strong power numbers in 2008, the team ultimately was not convinced that he would ever fulfill his potential. While Nunez went on to star in the Marlins bullpen, Jacobs lasted only one season in Kansas City, his last full season in the big leagues.
In 2010, Jacobs spent parts of the year playing in the Mets and Blue Jays farm systems. He hit 21 home runs and drove in 93 in 120 games combined in AAA, with a .335 OBP and .482 SLG. This season, Jacobs played exclusively in Colorado Springs and put up inflated numbers in the hitting friendly Pacific Coast League. With 23 home runs in 117 games, 97 RBIs, .376 OBP and .534 SLG, there looked to be a chance for Jacobs to restart his major league career. At 30-years of age, Jacobs was looking to have a year-end cup of coffee with the Rockies and leave a strong enough impression to perhaps have a chance in spring training 2012. Reports had a call up imminent for Jacobs when news of the HGH positive test leaked out. The Rockies immediately released the slugger, who is now on the MLB sidelines.
Following the Marlins acquisition of Jacobs in 2005, I expected his career to develop differently. It was clear the power was going to be there. It was the rest of his hitting development that I expect to follow. To stay in the big leagues, Jacobs was going to need to learn patience and to hit lefties. Following his 2008 campaign, I still hoped in the back of my mind that those qualities would eventually come out. But they never in fact did. Looking back at his magical 2008 campaign, there were red flags that Jacobs had major shortcomings as a hitter. 25 of his home runs came against right-handed pitchers. Against lefties, Jacobs hit .218 with a .248 OBP and .429 SLG. At best, without improvement, Jacobs was likely destined to be a platoon player for the rest of his career. Now today, Jacobs stands as the new poster child for HGH cheating. A scarlet letter that will be difficult, if not impossible to remove.
With Barry Bonds, Mark McGwire and Rafael Palmeiro gone from the game and the “steroid era” at an apparent end, the focus is now on HGH. Apparently very wide-spread in the game, baseball officials are said to be taking a hard stance to remove HGH use from the game. In suspending Jacobs, commissioner Selig indicated that baseball is on top of testing and is not hiding from the process. I expect HGH testing to be a part of the major leagues as early as 2012. Despite the tests and the threat of strict penalties, as Mike Jacobs has shown, athletes will continue to try to get ahead despite the risks involved. Jacobs came clean following his positive test, admitting usage to overcome injuries and regretting his decision to use HGH. The decision to use HGH will cost Jacobs more than 50 games. It resulted in his dismissal from the Rockies and likely removal from major league baseball all together. For a fringe player that was already hanging by a thread, having the HGH suspension on his resume will scare off many, if not most major league teams.
Mike Jacobs had his chances in baseball. While many sluggers before him are lucky to get one shot at the big leagues, Jacobs had several chances. Despite playing for three teams over six major league seasons, Mike Jacobs was never able to fulfill his vast potential. Like many left-handed home run hitters, Jacobs could never hit well against lefties and get on base at a high enough level to compliment his power bat. Now at 30-years of age, the legacy of Mike Jacobs will be as using HGH and failing the first North American test. While I expected Jacobs to be fighting for home run crowns at this point in his career, he now sits outside of baseball. A lesson to be learned for future sluggers. It is better to play clean and keep your reputation than cheat and get caught. Once the first failed test hits, any accomplishments in the past and future will always be tarnished. As Palmeiro, Bonds, Sosa and McGwire can attest, poor public perceptions never seem to go away. They just continue to linger, seemingly until the end of time.
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